ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
琬九
[转帖]The Economist《经济学人》中英对照版
14839
21
2008-10-25 15:55:00
本系列的中文部分均来自网友翻译。
The last word辩论到底
Oct 16th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
The final presidential debate was the best by far
最后一场总统候选人辩论最为精彩
Reuters
THE third and final debate, which took place at Hofstra University, New York on October 15th, was a firecracker of a show, as riveting as the two previous meetings were soporific. The candidates discussed substantive issues. They exchanged sharp blows. And, most of the time, they avoided reciting their talking points.
与前两次无聊至极的总统候选人辩论相比，10月15日在赫福斯特拉大学举行的第三次也是最后一次辩论十分精彩。候选人就实质性的问题交锋，互不相让，但大部分时间里，他们都避免具体论述各自的观点。
Some of the credit for this belongs to the moderator, Bob Schieffer, a CBS News anchor, who asked serious questions and even, occasionally, upbraided the candidates for not answering them. But most of it belongs to John McCain. Mr McCain knew that this was his last best chance to do something dramatic to shake up a race that is threatening to turn into a rout—and he came out swinging, pummeling away at Mr Obama for all he was worth.
之所以会有这种效果，要归功与CBS新闻主持人鲍勃•希弗。他提出了犀利的问题，而且如果候选人不作回答，他还会提出批评。但是主要的功劳在于麦凯恩。麦凯恩知道这是他最后一次力挽狂澜的机会了，所以他出场时没有负担，竭尽所能地抨击奥巴马。
Mr McCain drew sharp contrasts with his opponent. He insisted that Mr Obama believes that the government has the answers to America’s problems whereas Mr McCain puts his trust in ordinary people (in one amusing slip of the tongue he seemed to address Mr Obama as “Senator Government”). He dwelt at length on an offhand comment that Mr Obama made to a small-businessman called Joe the Plumber about “spreading the wealth around”, instantly turning Joe into the most famous plumber since the operatives who broke into the Watergate complex.
麦凯恩与奥巴马的观点截然不同。奥巴马觉得政府要解决目前的问题，而他本人则相信美国大众（有意思的是，他由于口误，差点把奥巴马说成是“议员政府”）。奥巴马曾随意的对一名叫乔的水管工人说，要他“分散财富”，而麦凯恩则抓住这点不放，两人关于乔的争论一时间使乔成为了自“水管工人”闯入水门大厦以来最有名的水管工人。
Mr McCain managed to land some good jabs on his rival. He pointed out that he had broken his promise to take public financing for his campaign (and thus limit campaign spending). He noted that Mr Obama’s solution to every problem is to spend more money. He attacked Mr Obama for (unfairly) pretending that there is no difference between him and the present incumbent. “I am not President Bush”, he said at one point. “If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago.”
麦凯恩成功的猛击对手。他指出奥巴马食言，要把公共财政用来竞选（这样就限制了竞选开支）。他注意到奥巴马对所有问题的解决方案只会花费更多的钱。他攻击奥巴马（尽管有些不公平）假装在他与布什之间没有区别。他说：“我不是布什，如果你想要与布什总统竞选，那么4年前你就该行动了。”
All good stuff. But Mr McCain also made two big mistakes. Bringing up Mr Obama’s association with Bill Ayers, a former terrorist, made him look petty on a day on which the Dow Jones had lost 8% of its value and people have much bleaker issues on their minds. The second—and more serious—lay in his body language. Mr McCain let his contempt for the younger man shine through, harrumphing, grimacing, smirking and goggling his eyes whenever Mr Obama got a chance to speak. The whole performance was reminiscent of Al Gore’s sighing in his debate with George Bush in 2000, which many people think contributed to his defeat.
这些都是强有利的论据，但是麦凯恩犯了两个大错误。他将奥巴马与前恐怖分子Bill Ayers联系起来，当道琼斯指数已跌8％，而人们对许多问题都担心不已之时，麦凯恩的这种联系使他看起来十分微不足道。第二个，也就是更为严重的错误就是他的身体语言。麦凯恩对奥巴马这个年轻候选人的轻视表露无遗，当奥巴马有机会讲话时，麦凯恩就会一脸鄙视、作鬼脸、假笑或是瞪眼睛。这都让人们想起了戈尔在2000年与布什辩论时叹气的情景，许多人认为，正是戈尔的叹气使他败北。
Mr Obama’s performance during all this was remarkable. He remained calm and unflustered. He listened respectfully to his opponent. He took every opportunity to change the subject to economics and the woes of the average American. He even turned Mr McCain’s assertion that he associated with Mr Ayers to his advantage, claiming that the people he associates with, on economic issues, are Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett. If many of his arguments were weak—he gave no sense of how he would reconcile his spending plans with America’s giant deficits—his body language was impeccable.
在整场辩论中，奥巴马都表现的非常好。他一直保持冷静沉着，聆听对手的回应，而且抓住一切机会把话题转到经济和普通美国人的困境上来。他甚至利用麦凯恩把他与Bill Ayers联系在一起的说法，称他也与一些经济上的大腕有联系，如保罗• 沃克尔和巴菲特。虽然他的许多辩解也没有说服力，例如他没有清楚说明他如何在开支计划和美国巨额赤字之间作出平衡，但是他的身体语言却是无可挑剔的。
The instant polls all gave a big victory to Mr Obama. Mr McCain made the debate exciting, but Mr Obama got the better of the evening, surely increasing his already high chances of victory in November.
辩论过后的民意调查表明奥巴马获胜。麦凯恩增强了辩论的热度，但奥巴马使辩论更为精彩，当然这就使他于11月入主白宫的机会更大了些。
译者yyjoy8404
The last word辩论到底
Oct 16th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
The final presidential debate was the best by far
最后一场总统候选人辩论最为精彩
Reuters
THE third and final debate, which took place at Hofstra University, New York on October 15th, was a firecracker of a show, as riveting as the two previous meetings were soporific. The candidates discussed substantive issues. They exchanged sharp blows. And, most of the time, they avoided reciting their talking points.
与前两次无聊至极的总统候选人辩论相比，10月15日在赫福斯特拉大学举行的第三次也是最后一次辩论十分精彩。候选人就实质性的问题交锋，互不相让，但大部分时间里，他们都避免具体论述各自的观点。
Some of the credit for this belongs to the moderator, Bob Schieffer, a CBS News anchor, who asked serious questions and even, occasionally, upbraided the candidates for not answering them. But most of it belongs to John McCain. Mr McCain knew that this was his last best chance to do something dramatic to shake up a race that is threatening to turn into a rout—and he came out swinging, pummeling away at Mr Obama for all he was worth.
之所以会有这种效果，要归功与CBS新闻主持人鲍勃•希弗。他提出了犀利的问题，而且如果候选人不作回答，他还会提出批评。但是主要的功劳在于麦凯恩。麦凯恩知道这是他最后一次力挽狂澜的机会了，所以他出场时没有负担，竭尽所能地抨击奥巴马。
Mr McCain drew sharp contrasts with his opponent. He insisted that Mr Obama believes that the government has the answers to America’s problems whereas Mr McCain puts his trust in ordinary people (in one amusing slip of the tongue he seemed to address Mr Obama as “Senator Government”). He dwelt at length on an offhand comment that Mr Obama made to a small-businessman called Joe the Plumber about “spreading the wealth around”, instantly turning Joe into the most famous plumber since the operatives who broke into the Watergate complex.
麦凯恩与奥巴马的观点截然不同。奥巴马觉得政府要解决目前的问题，而他本人则相信美国大众（有意思的是，他由于口误，差点把奥巴马说成是“议员政府”）。奥巴马曾随意的对一名叫乔的水管工人说，要他“分散财富”，而麦凯恩则抓住这点不放，两人关于乔的争论一时间使乔成为了自“水管工人”闯入水门大厦以来最有名的水管工人。
Mr McCain managed to land some good jabs on his rival. He pointed out that he had broken his promise to take public financing for his campaign (and thus limit campaign spending). He noted that Mr Obama’s solution to every problem is to spend more money. He attacked Mr Obama for (unfairly) pretending that there is no difference between him and the present incumbent. “I am not President Bush”, he said at one point. “If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago.”
麦凯恩成功的猛击对手。他指出奥巴马食言，要把公共财政用来竞选（这样就限制了竞选开支）。他注意到奥巴马对所有问题的解决方案只会花费更多的钱。他攻击奥巴马（尽管有些不公平）假装在他与布什之间没有区别。他说：“我不是布什，如果你想要与布什总统竞选，那么4年前你就该行动了。”
All good stuff. But Mr McCain also made two big mistakes. Bringing up Mr Obama’s association with Bill Ayers, a former terrorist, made him look petty on a day on which the Dow Jones had lost 8% of its value and people have much bleaker issues on their minds. The second—and more serious—lay in his body language. Mr McCain let his contempt for the younger man shine through, harrumphing, grimacing, smirking and goggling his eyes whenever Mr Obama got a chance to speak. The whole performance was reminiscent of Al Gore’s sighing in his debate with George Bush in 2000, which many people think contributed to his defeat.
这些都是强有利的论据，但是麦凯恩犯了两个大错误。他将奥巴马与前恐怖分子Bill Ayers联系起来，当道琼斯指数已跌8％，而人们对许多问题都担心不已之时，麦凯恩的这种联系使他看起来十分微不足道。第二个，也就是更为严重的错误就是他的身体语言。麦凯恩对奥巴马这个年轻候选人的轻视表露无遗，当奥巴马有机会讲话时，麦凯恩就会一脸鄙视、作鬼脸、假笑或是瞪眼睛。这都让人们想起了戈尔在2000年与布什辩论时叹气的情景，许多人认为，正是戈尔的叹气使他败北。
Mr Obama’s performance during all this was remarkable. He remained calm and unflustered. He listened respectfully to his opponent. He took every opportunity to change the subject to economics and the woes of the average American. He even turned Mr McCain’s assertion that he associated with Mr Ayers to his advantage, claiming that the people he associates with, on economic issues, are Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett. If many of his arguments were weak—he gave no sense of how he would reconcile his spending plans with America’s giant deficits—his body language was impeccable.
在整场辩论中，奥巴马都表现的非常好。他一直保持冷静沉着，聆听对手的回应，而且抓住一切机会把话题转到经济和普通美国人的困境上来。他甚至利用麦凯恩把他与Bill Ayers联系在一起的说法，称他也与一些经济上的大腕有联系，如保罗• 沃克尔和巴菲特。虽然他的许多辩解也没有说服力，例如他没有清楚说明他如何在开支计划和美国巨额赤字之间作出平衡，但是他的身体语言却是无可挑剔的。
The instant polls all gave a big victory to Mr Obama. Mr McCain made the debate exciting, but Mr Obama got the better of the evening, surely increasing his already high chances of victory in November.
辩论过后的民意调查表明奥巴马获胜。麦凯恩增强了辩论的热度，但奥巴马使辩论更为精彩，当然这就使他于11月入主白宫的机会更大了些。
译者yyjoy8404
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-10-25 15:57:03编辑过]
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
China’s economy
中国经济Slower boat from China
“中国号”减速
Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU
From Economist.com
Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll
由于世界经济不景气的影响，中国经济增速放缓
Shutterstock
PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West. It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.
也许这不值得大惊小怪。周一（10月20日）中国国家统计局发布第三季度经济数据：相对去年同期增长9％。以欧美标准来说，这已经非常令人满意了，但却比上一季度的10.1％低了不少（上一季度相对于更前的一个季度的经济增速已经降低了）。第三季度的经济增长率是中国自2003年年初以来的最低值。而在此前中国经济能够完全与西方“脱钩”的希望消失的氛围中，普遍预计中国经济增速会有一个更温和的下降。现在依照最近的每日数据来重新评估中国的经济享有多大的独立性显得非常有必要了。
It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.
现在越来越难说中国是否能相对地不受全球金融危机的影响。单是这个月，两个大型公司，玩具制造商合俊集团和钢铁制造商中国金属就已经进入破产清算程序。除了这些极少数有公开消息倒闭的公司外，还有成千上万的公司无声无息地消失了。今年早些时候，中国南方遭受了“劳动荒”，好多鞋厂无法完成靴子和其它需要众多劳动力和原料的订单。所有这些情况，现在已经完全颠倒过来了：这里拥有过剩的劳动力但却缺乏订单，而且没有一点复苏的迹象。
One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world. The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report. In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests. This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant. The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders. A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices. This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.
在中国贸易日历上最重大的事件之一就是久负盛名的广交会。在这里有着全国各地的制造商和来自世界各地的采购商。秋季广交会的第一部分已于10月19日结束，但是几乎没有什么好消息值得报道。在好的年份，广州的酒店会双倍收费甚至客满拒入。但这次，酒店费用依然很高但是却有大量空闲。虽然广交会上不至于门庭冷落，但是以通常标准来看，在欧美重要客户缺席的情况下，人流不算拥挤。许多参展商抱怨订单太少。而在一年前这些参展商还由于大宗商品价格的上升而要求提高在订货合同里加上价格自动调整条款。而今年，一位来自阿曼的建筑公司的客户表示他从价格下跌中获利不少，而且他还补充说，价格下跌的速度要比其之前上升的速度快得多。
China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone. There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending. Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen; production of steel has declined too. A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.
然而中国经济增速放缓不能仅将责任归咎于出口问题。渣打银行的Stephen Green表示，中国经济到处都出现警报信号，诸如投资、消费（尽管九月份名义零售额9月份增长23％）和政府开支。汽车、服装、机票和房地产的销售都在下降，钢铁生产量同样也在下降。这些仅有一小部分原因归咎于奥运的原因而关闭了一些工厂。
If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating. In this, there is some hope. China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation is declining. The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years. China’s government is in a strong financial position. Savings rates for the Chinese are high.
如果有什么值得乐观的话，那就是经济增长放缓部分的原因是由于中国政府自己去年（现在看来，那是一个完全不同时代）努力阻止经济过热的结果。基于此，现在仍有希望。由于一些不良贷款增加以及一些城市银行被怀疑存在问题，中国的金融状况不是非常完美，但是仍有足够的空间来放松财政和货币政策。大型国有银行看来状态非常好，由于在过去两年里贷款上限已经被非常严格地执行了，所以他们的流动性非常充足。中国政府的财政状况非常好。中国人民的储蓄率非常高。
As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—of credit, and domestic growth in consumption. Rumours of the potential government response are widespread. Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed. Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property. Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected. All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately. Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset. If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.
因此，中国积极的财政政策的实施，即便不算扩张的也是持续的信贷投放和国内消费的增长仍有非常大的空间。最近，有关中国政府可能会有举措的传言四起。去年被废除的出口指标退税可能会被恢复。而且房地产交易契税也正在被考虑取消。政府还可能增大在用水和交通项目上的开支。这些都会直接或者间接地刺激需求。这些措施都将减缓世界经济下降带来的压力，但是缓和不等于抵消。不能说全球经济动荡啥作用也没有，至少它揭示了世界最快经济体和发达国家繁荣兴盛的共同关系。
中国经济Slower boat from China
“中国号”减速
Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU
From Economist.com
Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll
由于世界经济不景气的影响，中国经济增速放缓
Shutterstock
PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West. It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.
也许这不值得大惊小怪。周一（10月20日）中国国家统计局发布第三季度经济数据：相对去年同期增长9％。以欧美标准来说，这已经非常令人满意了，但却比上一季度的10.1％低了不少（上一季度相对于更前的一个季度的经济增速已经降低了）。第三季度的经济增长率是中国自2003年年初以来的最低值。而在此前中国经济能够完全与西方“脱钩”的希望消失的氛围中，普遍预计中国经济增速会有一个更温和的下降。现在依照最近的每日数据来重新评估中国的经济享有多大的独立性显得非常有必要了。
It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.
现在越来越难说中国是否能相对地不受全球金融危机的影响。单是这个月，两个大型公司，玩具制造商合俊集团和钢铁制造商中国金属就已经进入破产清算程序。除了这些极少数有公开消息倒闭的公司外，还有成千上万的公司无声无息地消失了。今年早些时候，中国南方遭受了“劳动荒”，好多鞋厂无法完成靴子和其它需要众多劳动力和原料的订单。所有这些情况，现在已经完全颠倒过来了：这里拥有过剩的劳动力但却缺乏订单，而且没有一点复苏的迹象。
One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world. The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report. In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests. This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant. The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders. A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices. This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.
在中国贸易日历上最重大的事件之一就是久负盛名的广交会。在这里有着全国各地的制造商和来自世界各地的采购商。秋季广交会的第一部分已于10月19日结束，但是几乎没有什么好消息值得报道。在好的年份，广州的酒店会双倍收费甚至客满拒入。但这次，酒店费用依然很高但是却有大量空闲。虽然广交会上不至于门庭冷落，但是以通常标准来看，在欧美重要客户缺席的情况下，人流不算拥挤。许多参展商抱怨订单太少。而在一年前这些参展商还由于大宗商品价格的上升而要求提高在订货合同里加上价格自动调整条款。而今年，一位来自阿曼的建筑公司的客户表示他从价格下跌中获利不少，而且他还补充说，价格下跌的速度要比其之前上升的速度快得多。
China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone. There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending. Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen; production of steel has declined too. A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.
然而中国经济增速放缓不能仅将责任归咎于出口问题。渣打银行的Stephen Green表示，中国经济到处都出现警报信号，诸如投资、消费（尽管九月份名义零售额9月份增长23％）和政府开支。汽车、服装、机票和房地产的销售都在下降，钢铁生产量同样也在下降。这些仅有一小部分原因归咎于奥运的原因而关闭了一些工厂。
If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating. In this, there is some hope. China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation is declining. The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years. China’s government is in a strong financial position. Savings rates for the Chinese are high.
如果有什么值得乐观的话，那就是经济增长放缓部分的原因是由于中国政府自己去年（现在看来，那是一个完全不同时代）努力阻止经济过热的结果。基于此，现在仍有希望。由于一些不良贷款增加以及一些城市银行被怀疑存在问题，中国的金融状况不是非常完美，但是仍有足够的空间来放松财政和货币政策。大型国有银行看来状态非常好，由于在过去两年里贷款上限已经被非常严格地执行了，所以他们的流动性非常充足。中国政府的财政状况非常好。中国人民的储蓄率非常高。
As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—of credit, and domestic growth in consumption. Rumours of the potential government response are widespread. Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed. Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property. Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected. All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately. Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset. If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.
因此，中国积极的财政政策的实施，即便不算扩张的也是持续的信贷投放和国内消费的增长仍有非常大的空间。最近，有关中国政府可能会有举措的传言四起。去年被废除的出口指标退税可能会被恢复。而且房地产交易契税也正在被考虑取消。政府还可能增大在用水和交通项目上的开支。这些都会直接或者间接地刺激需求。这些措施都将减缓世界经济下降带来的压力，但是缓和不等于抵消。不能说全球经济动荡啥作用也没有，至少它揭示了世界最快经济体和发达国家繁荣兴盛的共同关系。
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
Pharmaceuticals
制药行业
Buying opportunity
收购机遇
Oct 9th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Will drugs giants defy the credit crunch and splash out on biotech deals?
制药巨头们丝毫不顾信贷紧缩的影响，斥巨资收购生物技术公司。
THE financial crisis means that most lawyers and bankers specialising in mergers and acquisitions are twiddling their thumbs. With confidence shattered and credit hard to come by, deals have dried up in most industries. But not in pharmaceuticals.
金融危机已经使大多数从事并购的律师和银行家们变的无所事是。随着信心的破碎和信贷的紧缩，并购交易在大多数行业都很难看到了，但是在制药行业却不是这样的。
This week Eli Lilly, a medium-sized American drugs firm, outbid Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), another middling American rival, for ImClone, a coveted biotechnology firm.Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor who owns a stake in ImClone, had noisily dismissed an earlier offer from BMS at a price of $62 per share as inadequate. He then claimed that a mystery bidder had emerged offering $70 a share—51% above the share price on July 30th, before BMS made its offer. When Lilly confirmed that his claim was no bluff, and put forward an all-cash, $70-per-share offer worth $6.5 billion, BMS bowed out.
本周一家美国中型制药企业—礼来公司，以高于另一家美国中型制药公司—百时美施贵宝的出价获得了一家生物技术公司—ImClone。Carl Icahn先生（一位身价数十亿的投资者）拥有ImClone的股份，他曾以出价太低为由拒绝了百时美施贵宝以每股62美金收购他持有的ImClone的股份的请求。那时他曾声称在百时美施贵宝发出收购要求之前就有一个神秘的买家愿意以每股70美金的价格（比该公司7月30日的股票价格高51%）收购他持有的ImClone的股份。礼来的行动证明当时他所言非虚，而且这次收购要采用全现金的方式，按照70美金一股计算需要支付65亿美金，百时美施贵宝显然已经出局。
Many are wondering why Lilly is paying so much for ImClone. Roger Longman of Windhover, an industry consultancy, puts it bluntly: “This deal does not seem economically sensible.” Because BMS will keep the North American marketing rights for Erbitux, ImClone’s blockbuster cancer drug, much of the firm’s current revenue will not go to the buyer.
许多人不明白礼来为什么要为ImClone花这么多钱。Windhover的Roger Longman先生（一位产业分析师）：“这项交易在经济上未必明智。” 因为百时美施贵宝仍将拥有ImClone 公司的抗癌拳头产品Erbitux(爱必妥)北美市场的销售收益，这将使收购方无法获得该公司现有的大部分收益。
Lilly has its eye on the biotech firm’s promising pipeline of drugs, but there too BMS thinks it has rights to some of the revenue from any successor to Erbitux—a claim Lillyis sure to dispute.
也许礼来盯上了该公司充满希望的产品组合，但是百时美施贵宝也是这样想的，它已经表示自己有权利分享除Erbitux(爱必妥)以外的其他产品的收益-礼来一定会对这一说法提出质疑。
So why did Lilly outbid BMS? The short answer is desperation. Much of the pharmaceutical industry faces a crunch in the next few years because today’s blockbusters will lose patent protection and their research pipelines have failed to come up with enough replacements. The problem is particularly acute at Lilly. By one estimate, nearly 60% of its $19 billion in sales may dry up as generic versions of its drugs become available between 2010 and 2013.
那为什么礼来要出比百时美施贵宝更高的价格来收购mClone呢？简短回答就是为了走出绝境。对大多数制药企业而言未来几年它们将面临生死存亡的考验，因为今天依靠的重磅***产品将失去专利保护而其自身的研发能力却无法填补这一空白，这种问题在礼来身上特别明显，根据评估，到2010-2013年其190亿美金销售收入中的近60%将本仿制药蚕食掉
ImClone’s pipeline of cancer drugs in early and mid-stage development promises to fill out Lilly’s portfolio and, its bosses hope, make it an oncology powerhouse. If that bet
works out, argues Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein, a financial-research outfit, Lilly may yet be vindicated.
礼来的老板希望用ImClone的那些处于早期和中期开发阶段的抗癌症药物来填补礼来的产品组合，让ImClone给自己提供源源不断的抗癌药物。Sanford Bernstein公司（一家专业提供财务分析的公司）的Tim Anderson说：如果事实真如礼来所原，那它的做法也就值得肯定了。
As for BMS, its apparent loss this week may prove to be a victory. In addition to revenue from Erbitux (and possibly its successor), it says it will realise a $1 billion gain by selling its 17% stake in ImClone. The firm also has some $7 billion in cash with which to pursue other acquisitions. Jean-Marc Huet, BMS’s finance chief, argues that the credit crunch, which hits smaller and start-up firms harder than big drugs companies, may produce a bonanza of “undervalued” firms for BMS to gobble up.
对百时美施贵宝而言虽然表面上是输家但是从另一个角度看也可能是胜利者。除了从Erbitux(爱必妥)以及其他可能的产品那里获得收益以外，它还可以通过出售ImClone17%的股份来获得10亿美金的收入。百时美施贵宝拥有70亿美金来收购其他公司。百时美施贵宝的首席财务官Jean-Marc Huet说面对信贷紧缩的情况小一些或者处于起步阶段的公司面临的困难要比大公司要大，也许百时美施贵宝有机会兼并掉价值被低估的公司。
Amid today’s panic, it is heartening to hear such confidence. Is there really a wave of drugs deals in the offing? One reason to think so is that the pharmaceutical industry is known for its large, reliable cashflows. That, Mr Longman argues, will persuade lenders to provide credit, should any be needed to complete deals. And because smaller firms have already gone by the wayside, he reckons the coming deals may involve bigger ones.
在当今的萧条时期，企业能有这样的信心实在是一件让人鼓舞的事情。在不远的未来是不是会有一波制药企业的收购浪潮？之所以这样说是因为制药企业有大量而可靠的现金来源。正如Longman先生所说如果收购需要钱，他们可以从放贷者那里借到钱。因为小企业已经陷入困境，他认为未来的交易将有利于大企业。
Unlike the large drugs companies, biotech firms tend to be small start-ups, and they are already seeing funding dry up. Leaders of Britain’s once up-and-coming biotechnology sector recently gave warning that selling out may soon be the only option. Dr Anderson suggests that America’s industry may follow suit. As if on cue, AtheroGenics, a cash-starved and debt-laden American biotech firm, declared bankruptcy this week.
因为与大型制药公司不同，生物技术企业一般处于小规模，刚起步的阶段，它们已经感觉到融资的艰难。英国一度欣欣向荣的生物技术公司已经发出了警告，用不了多久，出售自己可能是唯一的选择。Anderson博士认为美国的生物技术企业可能会步欧洲的后尘。如其所料，AtheroGenics公司（一家资金匮乏而且债务沉重的美国生物技术公司）本周宣布破产。
译者shchxt
制药行业
Buying opportunity
收购机遇
Oct 9th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Will drugs giants defy the credit crunch and splash out on biotech deals?
制药巨头们丝毫不顾信贷紧缩的影响，斥巨资收购生物技术公司。
THE financial crisis means that most lawyers and bankers specialising in mergers and acquisitions are twiddling their thumbs. With confidence shattered and credit hard to come by, deals have dried up in most industries. But not in pharmaceuticals.
金融危机已经使大多数从事并购的律师和银行家们变的无所事是。随着信心的破碎和信贷的紧缩，并购交易在大多数行业都很难看到了，但是在制药行业却不是这样的。
This week Eli Lilly, a medium-sized American drugs firm, outbid Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), another middling American rival, for ImClone, a coveted biotechnology firm.Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor who owns a stake in ImClone, had noisily dismissed an earlier offer from BMS at a price of $62 per share as inadequate. He then claimed that a mystery bidder had emerged offering $70 a share—51% above the share price on July 30th, before BMS made its offer. When Lilly confirmed that his claim was no bluff, and put forward an all-cash, $70-per-share offer worth $6.5 billion, BMS bowed out.
本周一家美国中型制药企业—礼来公司，以高于另一家美国中型制药公司—百时美施贵宝的出价获得了一家生物技术公司—ImClone。Carl Icahn先生（一位身价数十亿的投资者）拥有ImClone的股份，他曾以出价太低为由拒绝了百时美施贵宝以每股62美金收购他持有的ImClone的股份的请求。那时他曾声称在百时美施贵宝发出收购要求之前就有一个神秘的买家愿意以每股70美金的价格（比该公司7月30日的股票价格高51%）收购他持有的ImClone的股份。礼来的行动证明当时他所言非虚，而且这次收购要采用全现金的方式，按照70美金一股计算需要支付65亿美金，百时美施贵宝显然已经出局。
Many are wondering why Lilly is paying so much for ImClone. Roger Longman of Windhover, an industry consultancy, puts it bluntly: “This deal does not seem economically sensible.” Because BMS will keep the North American marketing rights for Erbitux, ImClone’s blockbuster cancer drug, much of the firm’s current revenue will not go to the buyer.
许多人不明白礼来为什么要为ImClone花这么多钱。Windhover的Roger Longman先生（一位产业分析师）：“这项交易在经济上未必明智。” 因为百时美施贵宝仍将拥有ImClone 公司的抗癌拳头产品Erbitux(爱必妥)北美市场的销售收益，这将使收购方无法获得该公司现有的大部分收益。
Lilly has its eye on the biotech firm’s promising pipeline of drugs, but there too BMS thinks it has rights to some of the revenue from any successor to Erbitux—a claim Lillyis sure to dispute.
也许礼来盯上了该公司充满希望的产品组合，但是百时美施贵宝也是这样想的，它已经表示自己有权利分享除Erbitux(爱必妥)以外的其他产品的收益-礼来一定会对这一说法提出质疑。
So why did Lilly outbid BMS? The short answer is desperation. Much of the pharmaceutical industry faces a crunch in the next few years because today’s blockbusters will lose patent protection and their research pipelines have failed to come up with enough replacements. The problem is particularly acute at Lilly. By one estimate, nearly 60% of its $19 billion in sales may dry up as generic versions of its drugs become available between 2010 and 2013.
那为什么礼来要出比百时美施贵宝更高的价格来收购mClone呢？简短回答就是为了走出绝境。对大多数制药企业而言未来几年它们将面临生死存亡的考验，因为今天依靠的重磅***产品将失去专利保护而其自身的研发能力却无法填补这一空白，这种问题在礼来身上特别明显，根据评估，到2010-2013年其190亿美金销售收入中的近60%将本仿制药蚕食掉
ImClone’s pipeline of cancer drugs in early and mid-stage development promises to fill out Lilly’s portfolio and, its bosses hope, make it an oncology powerhouse. If that bet
works out, argues Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein, a financial-research outfit, Lilly may yet be vindicated.
礼来的老板希望用ImClone的那些处于早期和中期开发阶段的抗癌症药物来填补礼来的产品组合，让ImClone给自己提供源源不断的抗癌药物。Sanford Bernstein公司（一家专业提供财务分析的公司）的Tim Anderson说：如果事实真如礼来所原，那它的做法也就值得肯定了。
As for BMS, its apparent loss this week may prove to be a victory. In addition to revenue from Erbitux (and possibly its successor), it says it will realise a $1 billion gain by selling its 17% stake in ImClone. The firm also has some $7 billion in cash with which to pursue other acquisitions. Jean-Marc Huet, BMS’s finance chief, argues that the credit crunch, which hits smaller and start-up firms harder than big drugs companies, may produce a bonanza of “undervalued” firms for BMS to gobble up.
对百时美施贵宝而言虽然表面上是输家但是从另一个角度看也可能是胜利者。除了从Erbitux(爱必妥)以及其他可能的产品那里获得收益以外，它还可以通过出售ImClone17%的股份来获得10亿美金的收入。百时美施贵宝拥有70亿美金来收购其他公司。百时美施贵宝的首席财务官Jean-Marc Huet说面对信贷紧缩的情况小一些或者处于起步阶段的公司面临的困难要比大公司要大，也许百时美施贵宝有机会兼并掉价值被低估的公司。
Amid today’s panic, it is heartening to hear such confidence. Is there really a wave of drugs deals in the offing? One reason to think so is that the pharmaceutical industry is known for its large, reliable cashflows. That, Mr Longman argues, will persuade lenders to provide credit, should any be needed to complete deals. And because smaller firms have already gone by the wayside, he reckons the coming deals may involve bigger ones.
在当今的萧条时期，企业能有这样的信心实在是一件让人鼓舞的事情。在不远的未来是不是会有一波制药企业的收购浪潮？之所以这样说是因为制药企业有大量而可靠的现金来源。正如Longman先生所说如果收购需要钱，他们可以从放贷者那里借到钱。因为小企业已经陷入困境，他认为未来的交易将有利于大企业。
Unlike the large drugs companies, biotech firms tend to be small start-ups, and they are already seeing funding dry up. Leaders of Britain’s once up-and-coming biotechnology sector recently gave warning that selling out may soon be the only option. Dr Anderson suggests that America’s industry may follow suit. As if on cue, AtheroGenics, a cash-starved and debt-laden American biotech firm, declared bankruptcy this week.
因为与大型制药公司不同，生物技术企业一般处于小规模，刚起步的阶段，它们已经感觉到融资的艰难。英国一度欣欣向荣的生物技术公司已经发出了警告，用不了多久，出售自己可能是唯一的选择。Anderson博士认为美国的生物技术企业可能会步欧洲的后尘。如其所料，AtheroGenics公司（一家资金匮乏而且债务沉重的美国生物技术公司）本周宣布破产。
译者shchxt
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
Emerging markets
All fall down都跌了
Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots发展中国家中的公司挣扎着逃命
STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect. Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year. On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended.
股市泡沫常常带来真正的经济或公司经营改进，接踵而来的是大规模过高估计其效果。新兴市场的股市投资者肯定在疑问着他们是否又被骗入,因为发展中国家原来就是疑团。这些国家的股市今年已经下跌近一半。10月6日，新兴市场的股价下跌创了20年来的最大跌幅，导致了人们太熟悉的混乱场面，跟着来到是强制性停止活动，例如在一些交易所停止了交易。
For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles. How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity pricessap export earnings and capital flows dry up. Even sound economies maystill be dragged down. As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”.
对于那些看好的投资人来讲，与以前各次循环相比，此次新兴经济一个吸引人地方在于他们以更好的公共债务及收支平衡作为起始。当大宗商品价格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影响，且资本流处于枯竭，这些国家的那些状况有强劲目前正受到考验。即使那些最健康的经济也可能被拉下水。大摩的经济学家Stephen Jen指出，在危机中“好的国家会发生坏事情”。
Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea—thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved. Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms. Indeed, these might even be less riskythan their homelands’ governments. And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets.
股票投资人的兴高采烈也反映了更新颖的看法—新兴市场里的公司质量已经改善了。相当普遍的看法是，这些公司已经不是老式那种拥有者及会计制度模糊不清的国际集团，替代而来的是新一代大型，运营良好，世界范围中有竞争力的“超大型”公司。真的，这些公司的风险可能比他们所在国的政府都少。正如荷兰经济不会影响皇家壳牌石油公司的股价一样，或是英国经济与Vodafone并不紧连，希望是这些公司可能已经超越了其国内市场。
Some of the claims were over the top. In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion (ten times today’slevel). But there was substance too, exemplified by the wave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata.
有些叫法有些太过头。在2007年月，由俄国政府控制的能源公司Gazprom宣布了一个恶魔式的预测，估计其市值将达到一万亿美金（是目前市值的10倍）。但是这些公司也有行动，在信贷紧缩前不断出价收购西方公司，例如巴西的矿业公司Vale出手上千亿美金收购 Xstrata就是实例。
EPAJust like the old days
跟过去一样
Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations. They may have been more overvalued to startwith. Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm. The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable. Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies—twice the share in developed markets—soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers. Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there. And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index. Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be less well run.
那么为什么多数新兴股市下跌幅度超过西方国家的股市跌幅，特别是上个月的下跌呢？这里有些可信的基本解释。这些新兴股市开始时可能就是估值过高了。就是当他们暴跌后，其本益比才与发达国家的本益比接近，而不是历史上常见的削价出售。多数这些市场的指数组成也使得这些市场更加不堪一击。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，几乎五分之二的收益是高度紧跟经济循环的能源或基本原材料公司，这是发达市场指数中的两倍。所以收益预测下降比发达市场的要快。中国大陆在多数这些指数中的表现不足（而中国大陆在近几周来相对强劲），这是基于外国人很难在那里进行投资的观点。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，前20家公司占了超过四分之一的地位。虽然这比发达经济多了许多，但仍剩下很多运营不如他们的很多较小公司。
As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry. Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments. This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents. Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Russia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers.
与指数组成及价值受到扭曲一样，与以前的危机相同，残酷的现实是投资人并没有细细选择。多数“超大型”公司已经受到的惩罚要比其富裕国家同类行业公司要重得多。信贷违约掉期合同，即防止破产的保险合同，表明大型新兴市场公司的贷款费用以及其所在国政府的贷款费用已经大幅上升。尽管在事实上，这些新兴市场制造业公司总体来讲，与其政府一样，债务水平都比其西方同类的要低。新兴市场的银行股价，除了几个例外情况外，例如俄国，均处于合理状态，但是也与其西方同行一起暴跌。
There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it. That couldpresent a buying opportunity. But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
虽然新兴经济已经有了结构性改善，但是目前市场中并没有反映这些。这就给出了买入机会。但是如果资本长期处于短缺状态，大型公司挣扎着转贷其外债，投资人的大胆举动可能会变成自圆其说了。
译者short1
All fall down都跌了
Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots发展中国家中的公司挣扎着逃命
STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect. Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year. On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended.
股市泡沫常常带来真正的经济或公司经营改进，接踵而来的是大规模过高估计其效果。新兴市场的股市投资者肯定在疑问着他们是否又被骗入,因为发展中国家原来就是疑团。这些国家的股市今年已经下跌近一半。10月6日，新兴市场的股价下跌创了20年来的最大跌幅，导致了人们太熟悉的混乱场面，跟着来到是强制性停止活动，例如在一些交易所停止了交易。
For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles. How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity pricessap export earnings and capital flows dry up. Even sound economies maystill be dragged down. As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”.
对于那些看好的投资人来讲，与以前各次循环相比，此次新兴经济一个吸引人地方在于他们以更好的公共债务及收支平衡作为起始。当大宗商品价格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影响，且资本流处于枯竭，这些国家的那些状况有强劲目前正受到考验。即使那些最健康的经济也可能被拉下水。大摩的经济学家Stephen Jen指出，在危机中“好的国家会发生坏事情”。
Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea—thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved. Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms. Indeed, these might even be less riskythan their homelands’ governments. And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets.
股票投资人的兴高采烈也反映了更新颖的看法—新兴市场里的公司质量已经改善了。相当普遍的看法是，这些公司已经不是老式那种拥有者及会计制度模糊不清的国际集团，替代而来的是新一代大型，运营良好，世界范围中有竞争力的“超大型”公司。真的，这些公司的风险可能比他们所在国的政府都少。正如荷兰经济不会影响皇家壳牌石油公司的股价一样，或是英国经济与Vodafone并不紧连，希望是这些公司可能已经超越了其国内市场。
Some of the claims were over the top. In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion (ten times today’slevel). But there was substance too, exemplified by the wave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata.
有些叫法有些太过头。在2007年月，由俄国政府控制的能源公司Gazprom宣布了一个恶魔式的预测，估计其市值将达到一万亿美金（是目前市值的10倍）。但是这些公司也有行动，在信贷紧缩前不断出价收购西方公司，例如巴西的矿业公司Vale出手上千亿美金收购 Xstrata就是实例。
EPAJust like the old days
跟过去一样
Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations. They may have been more overvalued to startwith. Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm. The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable. Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies—twice the share in developed markets—soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers. Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there. And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index. Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be less well run.
那么为什么多数新兴股市下跌幅度超过西方国家的股市跌幅，特别是上个月的下跌呢？这里有些可信的基本解释。这些新兴股市开始时可能就是估值过高了。就是当他们暴跌后，其本益比才与发达国家的本益比接近，而不是历史上常见的削价出售。多数这些市场的指数组成也使得这些市场更加不堪一击。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，几乎五分之二的收益是高度紧跟经济循环的能源或基本原材料公司，这是发达市场指数中的两倍。所以收益预测下降比发达市场的要快。中国大陆在多数这些指数中的表现不足（而中国大陆在近几周来相对强劲），这是基于外国人很难在那里进行投资的观点。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，前20家公司占了超过四分之一的地位。虽然这比发达经济多了许多，但仍剩下很多运营不如他们的很多较小公司。
As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry. Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments. This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents. Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Russia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers.
与指数组成及价值受到扭曲一样，与以前的危机相同，残酷的现实是投资人并没有细细选择。多数“超大型”公司已经受到的惩罚要比其富裕国家同类行业公司要重得多。信贷违约掉期合同，即防止破产的保险合同，表明大型新兴市场公司的贷款费用以及其所在国政府的贷款费用已经大幅上升。尽管在事实上，这些新兴市场制造业公司总体来讲，与其政府一样，债务水平都比其西方同类的要低。新兴市场的银行股价，除了几个例外情况外，例如俄国，均处于合理状态，但是也与其西方同行一起暴跌。
There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it. That couldpresent a buying opportunity. But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
虽然新兴经济已经有了结构性改善，但是目前市场中并没有反映这些。这就给出了买入机会。但是如果资本长期处于短缺状态，大型公司挣扎着转贷其外债，投资人的大胆举动可能会变成自圆其说了。
译者short1
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
[2008.10.09]There is hope 希望仍在
Africa
There is hope Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive 天灾人祸不断 局势有望好转
UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it
could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic
climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.
经过了持续几周的全球动乱，致力于推动非洲发展的改革者们终于可以略展笑颜。政治，经济上40多年的停滞不前曾使非洲8亿的人民的人们陷入贫穷和黑暗，但最近5年来，48个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家正以5%的总体速率飞速发展。如果他们能使这一速率维持甚至略有提高，非洲将有望摆脱贫困。现今日用品价格有望下调，世界市场将必然走向萎缩，相应地，西方的援助也会趋于稳定，甚至有所下降。尽管与其他地方相比，非洲地区相对独立于全球经济，却也难免殃及池鱼。“无望的陆地”本报从前曾这样过于苛刻地描述过这片土地。但也许，现实并非如此糟糕，以至于会让许多持悲观态度的人会感到不解，并且不时显现的复苏迹象也不只是日用品价格飙升所带来的表面繁荣，这一切昭示着一个切切实实的开端。尽管不良政权和多变气候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起
A long way to go 长路漫漫
Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea;
now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.
悲观主义者仍可言之凿凿。过往的日子里，特别是日用品价格飙升之际，经济增长多是昙花一现。但一旦价格回落，这种涨势则不堪一击。然而，非洲近来为数不多的成功例子则与先前灾难历史形成鲜明对比。加纳，是一个人们乐于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年这个国家宣布独立之时，它的富足程度就可比南韩，而现今，尽管近期经济局势略有反弹，但同比于韩国，国民人均财富仍缩水了30倍。另外几个国家的所谓“希望”，例如莫桑比克，卢旺达，乌干达，也只是与过往苦难形成的鲜明对比。实际上，唯一的一个保有政治经济上强有力持续增长的国家是博茨瓦纳。
Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.
很多基本指标仍不容乐观。非洲的人均寿命仍在下降，很大一部分归因于艾滋病，这一疾病60%的受害者都来自非洲。一份最新的世界银行报表对于非洲的增长势头能否持续持谨慎态度。报表显示，高于平均速度的大部分增长只是得益于8个撒哈拉以南的产油国由于石油产出所带来的国民收入。三分之一的非洲国家（目前为止占所有大洲的最高比例）陷于内战和暴动的漩涡。两个最突出的例子，苏丹和刚果，被长年的战乱和暴政摧毁。津巴布韦，这个曾被称为南非宝石的地方，尽管最近达成一项致力于建立国家统一政府的协定，如今却也成了一场噩梦。这份世界银行的报表对于非洲标准的政府管理表示出悲观态度。
Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.
但也许更令人担忧的是，大约在去年，非洲大陆的三个巨头都遭遇了严重倒退。自从1999年这个国家转变为文官统治以来，尼日利亚的大选遭遇了最严重的舞弊。肯尼亚，作为东非的轴心，在一次富有争议的选举之后经历了种族迫害。在各个方面作为撒哈拉以南领军国家的南非，国民生产总值占据整个GDP的三分之一，理应为其他非洲国家树立包容榜样，其政府却接近独裁的边缘。最近反对外国黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底层南非人民仍然面对着重重贫困。
All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely
accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.
与此同时，改革势头也更加明朗。政治自由尽管有待完善，却比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲国家现在已经对总统任期加以限制。至少14位领导人被迫下野。多党制尽管情势紧张，却也普及更广。政治义务和选择权的观念更加深入人心。由于互联网的部分原因，媒体变得更加活跃。由Mo Ibrahim（出生于苏丹的电信巨头）资助设立的最新的非洲行政指数，表明了一种普遍的进步。
The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.
非洲社会主义（不靠谱的第三种途径）红字下的国家统治假设已被证明是一堆垃圾。大多数地方领导人相信，尽管现在看起来局势不定，非洲繁荣离不开世界经济。手机革命大大帮助了非洲人民，特别是贫困的农民和商人。银行系统正处于现代化，信贷业务也对新兴的中产阶级更加开放。世界各地商人的投资力度也不断加强，尤其是对治理较好的非洲国家。即使是那些自然资源匮乏的国家增长速度也在加快。中国进军非洲市场，总的来说，利大于弊。
Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.
同样由世行联合发起的另一项报告，则对“华盛顿共识”颇有微词，“共识”确信，纯粹的自由市场是一剂万能药，非洲应当实行贸易开放，加强财政紧缩，清偿国家。然而针对非洲国家的不同情况，不能一以概之，比如，富裕国家倾向于提供具有时限的贸易优先权。
Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸着石头过河
Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.
其他的方法也会带来裨益。美洲的“非洲成长与机会2000年法案”，通过下调美洲关税刺激了非洲出口。另一个方案是“采掘行业透明度行动计划”，这是一项已有12个非洲国家参与的自愿履行的规则，政府与国外公司将公开交易，与富产矿产的刚果形成鲜明对比（该国可笑地宣称2006年的矿产收入只有$86,000。对于轻工业国家，国家储备基金的建立也不失为一个好主意。对于农业方面，将土地定位个人名下也是一个好办法。在一片土地共有的大陆上，似乎很难成事。现实总是会击败教条。
So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.
所以非洲现在有一个摆脱贫困陷阱的难得机会。即使对于一个诚信高效的政府，这一切仍是不易，更不要说，大多数政府并非如此。算上气候，疾病，文盲，种族分化种种不利，政府腐败仍是最大的弊端。但总体的消息还是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的国家也有他们的烦恼，但他们绝不会放弃帮助贫困国家自力更生的努力。
Africa
There is hope Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive 天灾人祸不断 局势有望好转
UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about. After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so. If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off. Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze. But maybe not as badly. Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshness, as “the hopeless continent”, it
could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaissance is not just another false dawn prompted by the passing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable. Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic
climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.
经过了持续几周的全球动乱，致力于推动非洲发展的改革者们终于可以略展笑颜。政治，经济上40多年的停滞不前曾使非洲8亿的人民的人们陷入贫穷和黑暗，但最近5年来，48个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家正以5%的总体速率飞速发展。如果他们能使这一速率维持甚至略有提高，非洲将有望摆脱贫困。现今日用品价格有望下调，世界市场将必然走向萎缩，相应地，西方的援助也会趋于稳定，甚至有所下降。尽管与其他地方相比，非洲地区相对独立于全球经济，却也难免殃及池鱼。“无望的陆地”本报从前曾这样过于苛刻地描述过这片土地。但也许，现实并非如此糟糕，以至于会让许多持悲观态度的人会感到不解，并且不时显现的复苏迹象也不只是日用品价格飙升所带来的表面繁荣，这一切昭示着一个切切实实的开端。尽管不良政权和多变气候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起
A long way to go 长路漫漫
Pessimists have plenty of evidence to call on. There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply. But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled. Africa’s few recent successes tend to be set against a previous history of disaster. Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea;
now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person. The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past. In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progress is Botswana.
悲观主义者仍可言之凿凿。过往的日子里，特别是日用品价格飙升之际，经济增长多是昙花一现。但一旦价格回落，这种涨势则不堪一击。然而，非洲近来为数不多的成功例子则与先前灾难历史形成鲜明对比。加纳，是一个人们乐于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年这个国家宣布独立之时，它的富足程度就可比南韩，而现今，尽管近期经济局势略有反弹，但同比于韩国，国民人均财富仍缩水了30倍。另外几个国家的所谓“希望”，例如莫桑比克，卢旺达，乌干达，也只是与过往苦难形成的鲜明对比。实际上，唯一的一个保有政治经济上强有力持续增长的国家是博茨瓦纳。
Many basic indices remain grim. Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African. A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last. Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries blessed with oil. A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest. The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment. Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity. The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.
很多基本指标仍不容乐观。非洲的人均寿命仍在下降，很大一部分归因于艾滋病，这一疾病60%的受害者都来自非洲。一份最新的世界银行报表对于非洲的增长势头能否持续持谨慎态度。报表显示，高于平均速度的大部分增长只是得益于8个撒哈拉以南的产油国由于石油产出所带来的国民收入。三分之一的非洲国家（目前为止占所有大洲的最高比例）陷于内战和暴动的漩涡。两个最突出的例子，苏丹和刚果，被长年的战乱和暴政摧毁。津巴布韦，这个曾被称为南非宝石的地方，尽管最近达成一项致力于建立国家统一政府的协定，如今却也成了一场噩梦。这份世界银行的报表对于非洲标准的政府管理表示出悲观态度。
Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks. Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa. The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.
但也许更令人担忧的是，大约在去年，非洲大陆的三个巨头都遭遇了严重倒退。自从1999年这个国家转变为文官统治以来，尼日利亚的大选遭遇了最严重的舞弊。肯尼亚，作为东非的轴心，在一次富有争议的选举之后经历了种族迫害。在各个方面作为撒哈拉以南领军国家的南非，国民生产总值占据整个GDP的三分之一，理应为其他非洲国家树立包容榜样，其政府却接近独裁的边缘。最近反对外国黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底层南非人民仍然面对着重重贫困。
All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before. Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago. Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result. Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely
accepted. The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier. The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.
与此同时，改革势头也更加明朗。政治自由尽管有待完善，却比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲国家现在已经对总统任期加以限制。至少14位领导人被迫下野。多党制尽管情势紧张，却也普及更广。政治义务和选择权的观念更加深入人心。由于互联网的部分原因，媒体变得更加活跃。由Mo Ibrahim（出生于苏丹的电信巨头）资助设立的最新的非洲行政指数，表明了一种普遍的进步。
The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked. Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now. The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders. Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle class. Businessmen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries. Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster. The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.
非洲社会主义（不靠谱的第三种途径）红字下的国家统治假设已被证明是一堆垃圾。大多数地方领导人相信，尽管现在看起来局势不定，非洲繁荣离不开世界经济。手机革命大大帮助了非洲人民，特别是贫困的农民和商人。银行系统正处于现代化，信贷业务也对新兴的中产阶级更加开放。世界各地商人的投资力度也不断加强，尤其是对治理较好的非洲国家。即使是那些自然资源匮乏的国家增长速度也在加快。中国进军非洲市场，总的来说，利大于弊。
Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dissents from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state. One size in varied Africa does not fit all. The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.
同样由世行联合发起的另一项报告，则对“华盛顿共识”颇有微词，“共识”确信，纯粹的自由市场是一剂万能药，非洲应当实行贸易开放，加强财政紧缩，清偿国家。然而针对非洲国家的不同情况，不能一以概之，比如，富裕国家倾向于提供具有时限的贸易优先权。
Feel each stone as you cross the river 摸着石头过河
Other devices could help too. America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs. Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings. The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea. On the farming front, issuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another. Pragmatism often beats dogma.
其他的方法也会带来裨益。美洲的“非洲成长与机会2000年法案”，通过下调美洲关税刺激了非洲出口。另一个方案是“采掘行业透明度行动计划”，这是一项已有12个非洲国家参与的自愿履行的规则，政府与国外公司将公开交易，与富产矿产的刚果形成鲜明对比（该国可笑地宣称2006年的矿产收入只有$86,000。对于轻工业国家，国家储备基金的建立也不失为一个好主意。对于农业方面，将土地定位个人名下也是一个好办法。在一片土地共有的大陆上，似乎很难成事。现实总是会击败教条。
So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap. It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient. Sadly, most are still not. Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest. But the news overall is cheerier. And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.
所以非洲现在有一个摆脱贫困陷阱的难得机会。即使对于一个诚信高效的政府，这一切仍是不易，更不要说，大多数政府并非如此。算上气候，疾病，文盲，种族分化种种不利，政府腐败仍是最大的弊端。但总体的消息还是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的国家也有他们的烦恼，但他们绝不会放弃帮助贫困国家自力更生的努力。
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
The economy and the election
经济与大选
It’s an ill wind 不测风云
Oct 9th 2008 | ABINGTON
From The Economist print edition
As the economy sags, Barack Obama’s electoral prospects soar
奥巴马的竞选在经济泄瘪之际，气势如虹
IN A small town in Pennsylvania, where the liquor store is called “Beer World”, the mini-golf course has a Statue of Liberty hole and a sign boasts that this is the “21st best town in the US”, Barack Obama is making a speech. The latest unemployment statistics have just been released, and they are grim. It is the day after the vice-presidential debate, during which Sarah Palin accused the Democrats of wanting to impose job-killing tax hikes on business.
在宾夕法尼亚州的一个小镇上，有家名叫 “啤酒世界” 的酒店。店里的迷你高尔夫球场上有孔“自由女神”洞，还有个标牌自誉是 “21世纪美国最好的小镇” 。奥巴马正在该店发表演说。最新出炉的失业率统计数字令人担忧。在此前一天的副总统候选人辩论会上，萨拉?佩林指责民主党人企图强行增加企业税，导致失业。
“Just since January, we’ve lost more than 750,000 jobs across America, 7,000 in Pennsylvania alone,” says Mr Obama. “So when Senator [John] McCain and his running-mate talk about job-killing, that’s something they know a thing or two about. Because the policies they’re supporting are killing jobs every single day.”
“至1月起，美国已经失去了75万以上的就业机会，仅宾州一地就达7000份工作”，奥巴马说，“因此，当参议员[约翰]麦凯恩和他的竞选同伴谈论制造失业的话题时，他们还真可以说点内容，因为他们所支持的政策每天都在制造失业”。
On the page, Mr Obama’s speeches can seem long-winded. But when he reels off each rhythmic sentence before an adoring crowd, the effect is almost musical. Did Mr McCain once mention that the fundamentals of the economy were sound? “Well, Abington,” says Mr Obama, “where I come from, there’s nothing more fundamental than having the sense of meaning and purpose that comes with showing up at work in the morning. There’s nothing more fundamental than being able to put your kids through college, or having health care when you get sick…There’s nothing more fundamental than a good-paying job.”
看起来，奥巴马的讲话似乎过于长篇大论了些。但他侃侃而谈的每一个句子带着排比的韵律，对赞赏他的听众来说好似音乐一般。嗯，麦凯恩是否再次提到，经济根 基仍然是坚固的？ “阿宾顿的民众们”，奥巴马先生说， “以我的出身体验，没有什么比早起上班更基本了；没有什么比能够供您的孩子读完大学，或者您生病时有医疗保更基本了……没有什么比一份好薪水更基 本了”。
Bad news is good news when you are the challenger, and the news has been awful of late. Stockmarkets are tumbling, taking a big chunk of voters’ pensions with them. No one knows if the latest interest-rate cut or the $700 billion rescue package Congress approved recently will stop the panic. Unemployment is still only 6.1%, but everyone expects it to rise. The American economy is probably already in recession, and voters feel it is. House prices are slumping, and homeowners are losing their homes. A 90-year-old woman about to be evicted in Ohio shot herself last week. (She survived, and the mortgage firm forgave her debt.)
作为挑战的一方，坏消息成了好机会。近来的新闻跟不上变幻，股票市场风起云涌，卷走了大把选民们的养老金。无人能预测最新的降息或国会最近批准的7千亿美 元的救世计划是否阻止得了惊慌。失业率虽然只有6.1 ％ ，但是人人都预感它会上升。美国经济可能已经陷入了衰退，选民们已经感同身受。房价还在下跌，物主们正失去自己的家园。上周，俄亥俄州一名90岁的妇女因 为即将被赶出家门而开枪自杀。（她活了下来，贷款公司取消了她的债务。）
Few voters understand why the economy is ailing, but many blame President George Bush. Mr Obama, as the candidate whose party does not control the White House, is the default choice of the disgruntled. This gives him a hefty advantage in the polls, which show him leading Mr McCain by five points nationwide and by significant margins in most swing states. He has more money to press his message home, too. A cash-strapped Mr McCain gave up running ads in Michigan the day Mr Obama spoke there last week. Barring a sudden, unlikely, uplift in the national mood, Mr Obama’s prospects look peachy.
选民极少能搞懂美国经济的病因，但许多人将之怪罪于现任总统布什。奥巴马先生作为的白宫之外的候选人，忿然不满理 所当然，这使他在民调中夺得优势。他不仅在全国范围内领先了麦凯恩5个百分点，在变数未定的州也明显占着优势。并且，他还有充裕的资金在自己的老家进行宣传。奥巴马上周在密歇根演说的那天，受资金限制的凯恩却放弃了做广告。除非全国会突发高涨情绪（几乎不可能），奥巴马的前景看好。
Voters anxious for change are warming to his message. And he has a gift for wrapping centre-left (by American standards) policies in language that has wide appeal. He often says, for example, that he will cut taxes for 95% of Americans. That is an attractive promise. The “cut taxes” bit appeals to conservatives, while the “95%” part appeals to liberals and moderates.
选民急切求变的心态是奥巴马政治口号的温床。对（按美国标准）中立及偏左的选民，他送出了用语言包装且讨好众人的政策礼品。例如，他常许诺诱人地要为95%的美国人减税。“减税”之说让保守派听了悦耳，同时，“ 95% ”也让自由派和温和派听了舒心。
Fact-checkers quibble that, according to his written plans, he really means 95% of families with children, not 95% of Americans. But his real sleight-of-hand is to count handouts administered through the tax code as “tax cuts”. You might think that a tax cut means keeping more of what you earn. The way Mr Obama uses the phrase, however, it can also mean being given a chunk of money that someone else has earned. That is how he is able to offer “tax cuts” to “95% of Americans” when about a third of American households already pay no federal income tax.
追究事实者则反讥说，根据奥巴马的书面计划，他的95％指的是有孩子的家庭，而不是95%的美国人。另外，其花枪之下的实质是把根据税收法给出的优惠也算作“减税” 。你或许以为，“减税”表示留下更多自己的收入。但按照奥巴马对该短语运用，它还意味着你从别人的收入中拿走一份。只有这样奥巴马才能为“95%的美国人” “减税”。事实上，大约三分之一的美国家庭已经不再缴纳联邦收入税了。
Such re-packaging is effective. “I’m for McCain,” says Matthew Julian, a biology student who has just heard Mr Obama speak in Michigan. “But I liked [what Mr Obama said]. He’s not going to tax the middle class. I thought he would. You know, I might change my mind and vote for Obama.”
此等重新包装很有效果。 “我支持麦凯恩”，生物学生马修?朱利安说。他刚在密歇根听过奥巴马演说。 “但我喜欢[奥巴马议员所说的] 不会对中产阶级加税的话。我认为他能做到。也许我会改变主张，投票给奥巴马”。
The way Mr Obama describes his opponent’s tax plans is also deft. Mr McCain plans to reduce the corporate tax rate. That sounds boring. So Mr Obama describes it as a “$4 billion tax break for big oil companies”. He is not lying. Big oil firms would indeed benefit from a lower corporate tax rate. But he makes it sound as if Mr McCain is doing special favours for an industry many Americans regard as villainous.
奥巴马解说他对手的税收计划时，用词也十分巧妙。麦凯恩打算降低企业的税率，这听起来并无新意可言。但奥巴马把它解说为一个“对大石油公司减税40亿美元 的政策”。他并没有撒谎。大型石油企业的确会受益于较低的公司税率。但奥巴马的解说让人听起来更像麦凯恩特别关照了石油公司，这个行业目前被许多美国人视为罪魁。
Mr Obama offers detailed and mostly sensible plans for dealing with problems from energy to health care. But it is not the details of his policies that voters recall after hearing him speak. It is the zingers.
针对从能源到医疗保健方面的处理问题，奥巴马提供了详细且大都合理的计划。令人意外的是，选民在听完他在听证会上发言之后，记住的却不是他的具体政策。
Consider health care, which Americans get very worried about during economic downturns. Most working Americans are insured via their employer. If they lose their job, they may lose their cover. This makes them understandably nervous.
以美国人在经济衰退期非常担忧的医保问题为例：大多数有职业的美国人通过其雇主投保。如果他们失去了自己的工作，就意味着可能失去医保。可以理解，他们为此而担忧。
The two candidates’ health plans are quite different. Mr Obama wants to expand coverage with an infusion of public cash. Mr McCain wants to curb costs through greater competition and end the rule that says that only insurance provided by an employer enjoys a tax break. Both ideas make sense. But if you listen to either man’s description of the other’s plan, you might be alarmed.
两位候选人的医保计划有很大的差别。奥巴马希望注入公共现金以扩大医保覆盖面。麦凯恩则希望抑制成本，一方面通过鼓励竞争，另一方面结束只对提供保险的雇主才减税的现有法律。这两位的主张都有合理之处。但你如果仅仅从某候选人的口里听他解说对方计划的话，你可能感觉不妙。
Mr McCain says Mr Obama wants to socialise medicine, which is a stretch. Mr Obama tells a more plausible but equally deceptive story. He notes that Mr McCain offers families a $5,000 tax credit to buy health insurance. He then adds, ominously, that there is something Mr McCain is not telling you: a typical family’s health-insurance premium each year is about $12,000. Because Mr McCain is going to tax health benefits that you get through your employer, your employer may stop covering you. You may end up like Mr Obama’s mother, who died of cancer at 53 while battling insurance firms from her hospital bed.
麦凯恩说，奥巴马要施行医保社会化，其难以实现。奥巴马讲述的是个听起来更合理，但同样骗人的故事。奥巴马指出，麦凯恩提出了5000美元的税收减免让家 庭购买医疗保险。他随即补充说，不幸的是，麦凯恩隐瞒了其它的东西：一个普通家庭的健康保险费每年约为 12000美元。由于麦凯恩要征收你雇主所得的医保优惠税，雇主就可能对你停保，结果您可能会像奥巴马的母亲一样。她因癌症53岁去世时，尚在病床上与医保公司交涉。
Many people walk away from Mr Obama’s speeches convinced that, under Mr McCain’s plan, they will lose $7,000-worth of health insurance. In fact, since Mr McCain’s tax credit is substantially larger than the tax break on employer-provided insurance that it replaces (which is typically worth less than $3,000), the vast majority will be better off. But that is tough to explain to an electorate that has always struggled to make sense of America’s insanely complex health-care system. And Mr McCain is no great communicator.
很多人听完了奥巴马的演说后，确信麦凯恩的计划会让他们失去价值$7000的医疗保险。事实上，麦凯恩的税收抵免远远超过了它取代的雇主医保减税（通常不 到3000美元），绝大多数人能够受惠其中。但是，相对美国极度复杂的医保制度，这些优点很难解释清楚。麦凯恩更不是一位优秀的演说家。
With a month to go, Americans may hear a dirge of glum economic news nearly every day between now and the election. The Democrats who control Congress are happy to supply a headline or two.
从现在起离大选还剩一月之余，美国人也许每天都会听到阴森森、像哀乐一般的经济新闻。控制国会的民主党会乐意地提供这类“头版头条”。
This week, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform grilled fat cats from failed financial firms. Henry Waxman, the committee chairman, waxed indignant at the ex-boss of Lehman Brothers’ $500m pay package (most of which he lost when his firm collapsed last month), and at a $440,000 spa trip taken by executives at AIG, a failed insurer, after the government bailed it out. “The Treasury should demand that money back and those executives should be fired,” said Mr Obama during a debate with Mr McCain on October 7th, doubtless pleased to be fed such a juicy line.
本周，众议院监管和政府改革委员会把败溃的金融公司中几只昔日肥猫（注：气盛之意）架在烤炉上。委员会主席亨利克斯曼怒气冲冲地盘问有关雷曼兄弟前老板5亿美元的报酬（大部分已在其公司上月倒闭时失去）和AIG主管们四十四万美元的温泉之旅。AIG败溃之后被政府保救下来。奥巴马10月7日在与麦凯恩的辩论会上说：“财政部应该追回这些钱，高管们应该被解雇掉”，毫无疑问，他很乐意利用这类新闻。
During the same debate Mr McCain offered a bail-out for troubled homeowners, offering to buy up their mortgages and replace them with more manageable loans. His campaign estimates this will cost $300 billion. Meanwhile, Mrs Palin is playing the traditional running-mate’s role of attacking Mr Obama’s character; but after his bare-knuckle primary battle with Hillary Clinton there are no new charges to fling.
麦凯恩在同一辩论会上提供了一项救助陷入困境的房主、购买他们的贷款及代之以低廉易供的贷款方案。他估计这项计划将耗资3000亿美元。与此同时，佩林女士正扮演着传统上竞选伙伴的角色，攻击奥巴马的人格，但奥巴马至初选中与希拉里?克林顿毫不留情地交锋之后，目前并没有任何新料。
At a rally in Florida, Mrs Palin reminded supporters that Mr Obama held one of his first political meetings at the home of William Ayers, an unrepentant advocate of bombing American government buildings during the 1960s, who is now an educational activist in Chicago. Mr Ayers, who has been photographed proudly stamping on an American flag, also worked with Mr Obama on various educational projects. Mrs Palin said she feared that Mr Obama “is not a man who sees America the way that you and I see America.”
在一次佛罗里达州的集会上，佩林提醒她的支持者说：奥巴马的早期政治会议中，有一次是在威廉?艾尔斯的家里举行。后者是60年代的一名顽固的激进分子，曾倡仪炸掉美国政府的建筑物，他现在是芝加哥的教育活动家。被人拍到神情自豪地踩踏美国国旗的艾尔斯先生还参与了奥巴马的多个教育项目。佩林说，她担心奥巴马“眼中的美国，不同于你我眼中的美国”。
Mr McCain’s campaign ads have turned sharply negative. A recent one highlights Mr Obama’s ties to Chicago machine politicians and a corrupt property developer, Tony Rezko. Another links him to congressional Democrats who encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage giants at the centre of the housing bust, to direct a torrent of credit to un creditworthy borrowers. The campaign has mostly steered clear of reminding people that Mr Obama’s pastor of two decades thinks the American government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks, but Mrs Palin has hinted that she thinks this is fair game.
麦凯恩的竞选广告急速转成了负面攻击。最近的一个广告著重揭示奥巴马与芝加哥重量级政治人物及一名腐败房地产开发商尼雷兹科的关系。另一个广告把奥巴马与 国会民主党人挂上钩。那些人是房利美和联邦住房贷款抵押公司的支持者。政府支持的这两家贷款巨头曾引领滥贷潮流，它们如今陷在房贷灾难的漩涡中心。替奥巴马作了二十年牧师的赖特认为，美国政府制造了艾滋病来消灭黑人。以前，麦凯恩的竞选一般避免提醒们注意这点。但帕林暗示说，她认为不必回避赖特。
Mr Obama hit back with a long web ad detailing Mr McCain’s involvement in the savings-and-loan scandal of the 1980s. Mr McCain accepted campaign donations and trips on a jet from Charles Keating, a fraudster whose savings-and-loan later collapsed. The Senate ethics committee found Mr McCain guilty only of “misjudgment”. He has frequently expressed deep shame about the incident. Mr Obama’s ad suggests a direct link between it and the current financial crisis.
奥巴马的回击是一份长篇网页广告，里面详细地列出了麦凯恩参与的80年代“储蓄和贷款”事件。欺诈人查尔斯?基廷的储蓄和贷款公司后来破了产。麦凯恩曾接受基廷的竞选捐款并乘其喷气机旅行。参议院道德委员会判决麦凯恩仅仅属于 “判断误差” 。麦凯恩经常为此事深表惭愧。奥巴马的广告则暗示此事与目前财政危机之间有直接的关联。
Mr Obama’s fans are jubilant. At his rally last week in Michigan, some sold posters mocking Mr McCain’s seven homes: “McCain, please buy my house too!” And Gerald Morgan, a man selling T-shirts showing a big Obama face next to a little Nelson Mandela and a little Martin Luther King, said he’d be “elated” if his hero wins. This week, it looks much likelier.
奥巴马议员的支持者为目前形势所鼓舞。上周在密歇根州的一个集会上，部分售出的海报上嘲讽了麦凯恩的七处房产。上面写道： “麦凯恩，请你也买下我的房子吧！” 一名叫杰拉尔?德摩根的男子推销的T恤衫上，画着奥巴马的大面孔，旁边配着很小的纳尔逊?曼德拉和马丁?路德金。男子说，如果他的英雄得胜，他会十分得意。以本周情形来看，目标更近了。
译者：skittos
经济与大选
It’s an ill wind 不测风云
Oct 9th 2008 | ABINGTON
From The Economist print edition
As the economy sags, Barack Obama’s electoral prospects soar
奥巴马的竞选在经济泄瘪之际，气势如虹
IN A small town in Pennsylvania, where the liquor store is called “Beer World”, the mini-golf course has a Statue of Liberty hole and a sign boasts that this is the “21st best town in the US”, Barack Obama is making a speech. The latest unemployment statistics have just been released, and they are grim. It is the day after the vice-presidential debate, during which Sarah Palin accused the Democrats of wanting to impose job-killing tax hikes on business.
在宾夕法尼亚州的一个小镇上，有家名叫 “啤酒世界” 的酒店。店里的迷你高尔夫球场上有孔“自由女神”洞，还有个标牌自誉是 “21世纪美国最好的小镇” 。奥巴马正在该店发表演说。最新出炉的失业率统计数字令人担忧。在此前一天的副总统候选人辩论会上，萨拉?佩林指责民主党人企图强行增加企业税，导致失业。
“Just since January, we’ve lost more than 750,000 jobs across America, 7,000 in Pennsylvania alone,” says Mr Obama. “So when Senator [John] McCain and his running-mate talk about job-killing, that’s something they know a thing or two about. Because the policies they’re supporting are killing jobs every single day.”
“至1月起，美国已经失去了75万以上的就业机会，仅宾州一地就达7000份工作”，奥巴马说，“因此，当参议员[约翰]麦凯恩和他的竞选同伴谈论制造失业的话题时，他们还真可以说点内容，因为他们所支持的政策每天都在制造失业”。
On the page, Mr Obama’s speeches can seem long-winded. But when he reels off each rhythmic sentence before an adoring crowd, the effect is almost musical. Did Mr McCain once mention that the fundamentals of the economy were sound? “Well, Abington,” says Mr Obama, “where I come from, there’s nothing more fundamental than having the sense of meaning and purpose that comes with showing up at work in the morning. There’s nothing more fundamental than being able to put your kids through college, or having health care when you get sick…There’s nothing more fundamental than a good-paying job.”
看起来，奥巴马的讲话似乎过于长篇大论了些。但他侃侃而谈的每一个句子带着排比的韵律，对赞赏他的听众来说好似音乐一般。嗯，麦凯恩是否再次提到，经济根 基仍然是坚固的？ “阿宾顿的民众们”，奥巴马先生说， “以我的出身体验，没有什么比早起上班更基本了；没有什么比能够供您的孩子读完大学，或者您生病时有医疗保更基本了……没有什么比一份好薪水更基 本了”。
Bad news is good news when you are the challenger, and the news has been awful of late. Stockmarkets are tumbling, taking a big chunk of voters’ pensions with them. No one knows if the latest interest-rate cut or the $700 billion rescue package Congress approved recently will stop the panic. Unemployment is still only 6.1%, but everyone expects it to rise. The American economy is probably already in recession, and voters feel it is. House prices are slumping, and homeowners are losing their homes. A 90-year-old woman about to be evicted in Ohio shot herself last week. (She survived, and the mortgage firm forgave her debt.)
作为挑战的一方，坏消息成了好机会。近来的新闻跟不上变幻，股票市场风起云涌，卷走了大把选民们的养老金。无人能预测最新的降息或国会最近批准的7千亿美 元的救世计划是否阻止得了惊慌。失业率虽然只有6.1 ％ ，但是人人都预感它会上升。美国经济可能已经陷入了衰退，选民们已经感同身受。房价还在下跌，物主们正失去自己的家园。上周，俄亥俄州一名90岁的妇女因 为即将被赶出家门而开枪自杀。（她活了下来，贷款公司取消了她的债务。）
Few voters understand why the economy is ailing, but many blame President George Bush. Mr Obama, as the candidate whose party does not control the White House, is the default choice of the disgruntled. This gives him a hefty advantage in the polls, which show him leading Mr McCain by five points nationwide and by significant margins in most swing states. He has more money to press his message home, too. A cash-strapped Mr McCain gave up running ads in Michigan the day Mr Obama spoke there last week. Barring a sudden, unlikely, uplift in the national mood, Mr Obama’s prospects look peachy.
选民极少能搞懂美国经济的病因，但许多人将之怪罪于现任总统布什。奥巴马先生作为的白宫之外的候选人，忿然不满理 所当然，这使他在民调中夺得优势。他不仅在全国范围内领先了麦凯恩5个百分点，在变数未定的州也明显占着优势。并且，他还有充裕的资金在自己的老家进行宣传。奥巴马上周在密歇根演说的那天，受资金限制的凯恩却放弃了做广告。除非全国会突发高涨情绪（几乎不可能），奥巴马的前景看好。
Voters anxious for change are warming to his message. And he has a gift for wrapping centre-left (by American standards) policies in language that has wide appeal. He often says, for example, that he will cut taxes for 95% of Americans. That is an attractive promise. The “cut taxes” bit appeals to conservatives, while the “95%” part appeals to liberals and moderates.
选民急切求变的心态是奥巴马政治口号的温床。对（按美国标准）中立及偏左的选民，他送出了用语言包装且讨好众人的政策礼品。例如，他常许诺诱人地要为95%的美国人减税。“减税”之说让保守派听了悦耳，同时，“ 95% ”也让自由派和温和派听了舒心。
Fact-checkers quibble that, according to his written plans, he really means 95% of families with children, not 95% of Americans. But his real sleight-of-hand is to count handouts administered through the tax code as “tax cuts”. You might think that a tax cut means keeping more of what you earn. The way Mr Obama uses the phrase, however, it can also mean being given a chunk of money that someone else has earned. That is how he is able to offer “tax cuts” to “95% of Americans” when about a third of American households already pay no federal income tax.
追究事实者则反讥说，根据奥巴马的书面计划，他的95％指的是有孩子的家庭，而不是95%的美国人。另外，其花枪之下的实质是把根据税收法给出的优惠也算作“减税” 。你或许以为，“减税”表示留下更多自己的收入。但按照奥巴马对该短语运用，它还意味着你从别人的收入中拿走一份。只有这样奥巴马才能为“95%的美国人” “减税”。事实上，大约三分之一的美国家庭已经不再缴纳联邦收入税了。
Such re-packaging is effective. “I’m for McCain,” says Matthew Julian, a biology student who has just heard Mr Obama speak in Michigan. “But I liked [what Mr Obama said]. He’s not going to tax the middle class. I thought he would. You know, I might change my mind and vote for Obama.”
此等重新包装很有效果。 “我支持麦凯恩”，生物学生马修?朱利安说。他刚在密歇根听过奥巴马演说。 “但我喜欢[奥巴马议员所说的] 不会对中产阶级加税的话。我认为他能做到。也许我会改变主张，投票给奥巴马”。
The way Mr Obama describes his opponent’s tax plans is also deft. Mr McCain plans to reduce the corporate tax rate. That sounds boring. So Mr Obama describes it as a “$4 billion tax break for big oil companies”. He is not lying. Big oil firms would indeed benefit from a lower corporate tax rate. But he makes it sound as if Mr McCain is doing special favours for an industry many Americans regard as villainous.
奥巴马解说他对手的税收计划时，用词也十分巧妙。麦凯恩打算降低企业的税率，这听起来并无新意可言。但奥巴马把它解说为一个“对大石油公司减税40亿美元 的政策”。他并没有撒谎。大型石油企业的确会受益于较低的公司税率。但奥巴马的解说让人听起来更像麦凯恩特别关照了石油公司，这个行业目前被许多美国人视为罪魁。
Mr Obama offers detailed and mostly sensible plans for dealing with problems from energy to health care. But it is not the details of his policies that voters recall after hearing him speak. It is the zingers.
针对从能源到医疗保健方面的处理问题，奥巴马提供了详细且大都合理的计划。令人意外的是，选民在听完他在听证会上发言之后，记住的却不是他的具体政策。
Consider health care, which Americans get very worried about during economic downturns. Most working Americans are insured via their employer. If they lose their job, they may lose their cover. This makes them understandably nervous.
以美国人在经济衰退期非常担忧的医保问题为例：大多数有职业的美国人通过其雇主投保。如果他们失去了自己的工作，就意味着可能失去医保。可以理解，他们为此而担忧。
The two candidates’ health plans are quite different. Mr Obama wants to expand coverage with an infusion of public cash. Mr McCain wants to curb costs through greater competition and end the rule that says that only insurance provided by an employer enjoys a tax break. Both ideas make sense. But if you listen to either man’s description of the other’s plan, you might be alarmed.
两位候选人的医保计划有很大的差别。奥巴马希望注入公共现金以扩大医保覆盖面。麦凯恩则希望抑制成本，一方面通过鼓励竞争，另一方面结束只对提供保险的雇主才减税的现有法律。这两位的主张都有合理之处。但你如果仅仅从某候选人的口里听他解说对方计划的话，你可能感觉不妙。
Mr McCain says Mr Obama wants to socialise medicine, which is a stretch. Mr Obama tells a more plausible but equally deceptive story. He notes that Mr McCain offers families a $5,000 tax credit to buy health insurance. He then adds, ominously, that there is something Mr McCain is not telling you: a typical family’s health-insurance premium each year is about $12,000. Because Mr McCain is going to tax health benefits that you get through your employer, your employer may stop covering you. You may end up like Mr Obama’s mother, who died of cancer at 53 while battling insurance firms from her hospital bed.
麦凯恩说，奥巴马要施行医保社会化，其难以实现。奥巴马讲述的是个听起来更合理，但同样骗人的故事。奥巴马指出，麦凯恩提出了5000美元的税收减免让家 庭购买医疗保险。他随即补充说，不幸的是，麦凯恩隐瞒了其它的东西：一个普通家庭的健康保险费每年约为 12000美元。由于麦凯恩要征收你雇主所得的医保优惠税，雇主就可能对你停保，结果您可能会像奥巴马的母亲一样。她因癌症53岁去世时，尚在病床上与医保公司交涉。
Many people walk away from Mr Obama’s speeches convinced that, under Mr McCain’s plan, they will lose $7,000-worth of health insurance. In fact, since Mr McCain’s tax credit is substantially larger than the tax break on employer-provided insurance that it replaces (which is typically worth less than $3,000), the vast majority will be better off. But that is tough to explain to an electorate that has always struggled to make sense of America’s insanely complex health-care system. And Mr McCain is no great communicator.
很多人听完了奥巴马的演说后，确信麦凯恩的计划会让他们失去价值$7000的医疗保险。事实上，麦凯恩的税收抵免远远超过了它取代的雇主医保减税（通常不 到3000美元），绝大多数人能够受惠其中。但是，相对美国极度复杂的医保制度，这些优点很难解释清楚。麦凯恩更不是一位优秀的演说家。
With a month to go, Americans may hear a dirge of glum economic news nearly every day between now and the election. The Democrats who control Congress are happy to supply a headline or two.
从现在起离大选还剩一月之余，美国人也许每天都会听到阴森森、像哀乐一般的经济新闻。控制国会的民主党会乐意地提供这类“头版头条”。
This week, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform grilled fat cats from failed financial firms. Henry Waxman, the committee chairman, waxed indignant at the ex-boss of Lehman Brothers’ $500m pay package (most of which he lost when his firm collapsed last month), and at a $440,000 spa trip taken by executives at AIG, a failed insurer, after the government bailed it out. “The Treasury should demand that money back and those executives should be fired,” said Mr Obama during a debate with Mr McCain on October 7th, doubtless pleased to be fed such a juicy line.
本周，众议院监管和政府改革委员会把败溃的金融公司中几只昔日肥猫（注：气盛之意）架在烤炉上。委员会主席亨利克斯曼怒气冲冲地盘问有关雷曼兄弟前老板5亿美元的报酬（大部分已在其公司上月倒闭时失去）和AIG主管们四十四万美元的温泉之旅。AIG败溃之后被政府保救下来。奥巴马10月7日在与麦凯恩的辩论会上说：“财政部应该追回这些钱，高管们应该被解雇掉”，毫无疑问，他很乐意利用这类新闻。
During the same debate Mr McCain offered a bail-out for troubled homeowners, offering to buy up their mortgages and replace them with more manageable loans. His campaign estimates this will cost $300 billion. Meanwhile, Mrs Palin is playing the traditional running-mate’s role of attacking Mr Obama’s character; but after his bare-knuckle primary battle with Hillary Clinton there are no new charges to fling.
麦凯恩在同一辩论会上提供了一项救助陷入困境的房主、购买他们的贷款及代之以低廉易供的贷款方案。他估计这项计划将耗资3000亿美元。与此同时，佩林女士正扮演着传统上竞选伙伴的角色，攻击奥巴马的人格，但奥巴马至初选中与希拉里?克林顿毫不留情地交锋之后，目前并没有任何新料。
At a rally in Florida, Mrs Palin reminded supporters that Mr Obama held one of his first political meetings at the home of William Ayers, an unrepentant advocate of bombing American government buildings during the 1960s, who is now an educational activist in Chicago. Mr Ayers, who has been photographed proudly stamping on an American flag, also worked with Mr Obama on various educational projects. Mrs Palin said she feared that Mr Obama “is not a man who sees America the way that you and I see America.”
在一次佛罗里达州的集会上，佩林提醒她的支持者说：奥巴马的早期政治会议中，有一次是在威廉?艾尔斯的家里举行。后者是60年代的一名顽固的激进分子，曾倡仪炸掉美国政府的建筑物，他现在是芝加哥的教育活动家。被人拍到神情自豪地踩踏美国国旗的艾尔斯先生还参与了奥巴马的多个教育项目。佩林说，她担心奥巴马“眼中的美国，不同于你我眼中的美国”。
Mr McCain’s campaign ads have turned sharply negative. A recent one highlights Mr Obama’s ties to Chicago machine politicians and a corrupt property developer, Tony Rezko. Another links him to congressional Democrats who encouraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage giants at the centre of the housing bust, to direct a torrent of credit to un creditworthy borrowers. The campaign has mostly steered clear of reminding people that Mr Obama’s pastor of two decades thinks the American government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks, but Mrs Palin has hinted that she thinks this is fair game.
麦凯恩的竞选广告急速转成了负面攻击。最近的一个广告著重揭示奥巴马与芝加哥重量级政治人物及一名腐败房地产开发商尼雷兹科的关系。另一个广告把奥巴马与 国会民主党人挂上钩。那些人是房利美和联邦住房贷款抵押公司的支持者。政府支持的这两家贷款巨头曾引领滥贷潮流，它们如今陷在房贷灾难的漩涡中心。替奥巴马作了二十年牧师的赖特认为，美国政府制造了艾滋病来消灭黑人。以前，麦凯恩的竞选一般避免提醒们注意这点。但帕林暗示说，她认为不必回避赖特。
Mr Obama hit back with a long web ad detailing Mr McCain’s involvement in the savings-and-loan scandal of the 1980s. Mr McCain accepted campaign donations and trips on a jet from Charles Keating, a fraudster whose savings-and-loan later collapsed. The Senate ethics committee found Mr McCain guilty only of “misjudgment”. He has frequently expressed deep shame about the incident. Mr Obama’s ad suggests a direct link between it and the current financial crisis.
奥巴马的回击是一份长篇网页广告，里面详细地列出了麦凯恩参与的80年代“储蓄和贷款”事件。欺诈人查尔斯?基廷的储蓄和贷款公司后来破了产。麦凯恩曾接受基廷的竞选捐款并乘其喷气机旅行。参议院道德委员会判决麦凯恩仅仅属于 “判断误差” 。麦凯恩经常为此事深表惭愧。奥巴马的广告则暗示此事与目前财政危机之间有直接的关联。
Mr Obama’s fans are jubilant. At his rally last week in Michigan, some sold posters mocking Mr McCain’s seven homes: “McCain, please buy my house too!” And Gerald Morgan, a man selling T-shirts showing a big Obama face next to a little Nelson Mandela and a little Martin Luther King, said he’d be “elated” if his hero wins. This week, it looks much likelier.
奥巴马议员的支持者为目前形势所鼓舞。上周在密歇根州的一个集会上，部分售出的海报上嘲讽了麦凯恩的七处房产。上面写道： “麦凯恩，请你也买下我的房子吧！” 一名叫杰拉尔?德摩根的男子推销的T恤衫上，画着奥巴马的大面孔，旁边配着很小的纳尔逊?曼德拉和马丁?路德金。男子说，如果他的英雄得胜，他会十分得意。以本周情形来看，目标更近了。
译者：skittos
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
The credit crunch
信贷危机
Saving the system 拯救系统
Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldness is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe
最后还有一线希望，为避免一场全球经济大灾难发生，还需要更大胆
CONFIDENCE is everything in finance. Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this essential ingredient. In America Congress dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan. In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere. This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap.
对金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周为止，那些努力应对信贷危机的政要们在重建信心这一基本因素上作为甚少。在美国，国会犹豫不决地通过了布什政府7000亿美元的救市计划。在欧洲，政府间随意地玩着以邻为壑的政治游戏，各国纷纷对本国存款进行担保，没有顾及这样会动摇其他国家的银行。然而，还是让人们看到了第一束希望的曙光——全球将一致行动弥合信心裂缝。
One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and (officially a coincidence) the People’s Bank of China. Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks. But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain. The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers. More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years.
一个明确的信号是10月8日全球主要央行空前地联合降息，其中包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行（英格兰银行）和中国央行（官方称是巧合）。许多欧洲大陆国 家也开始计划调整银行资本结构。但最令人惊骇的进展发生在美国和英国。美联储将对其短期内对银行提供的贷款规模扩大到9000亿美元，为原来的两倍，并宣布将直接从企业购买未担保的商业票据。更令人惊讶的是，迄今为止不知所措到极点的戈登?布朗政府采取了应对危机的第一个系统的计划，不仅向银行提供资本和 短期贷款，还对三年内到期的新债进行担保。
This is certainly progress, but it is not enough (see our extended finance section). The world’s finance ministers and central bankers, gathering in Washington, DC, this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, should deliver a simple message: more will be done. The world economy is plainly in a poor state, but it could get a lot worse. This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers. That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.
这的确是个进步，但还不够。本周末，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行的年会将在华盛顿召开，与会的世界各国财长和央行行长应该传递出一条简单的信 息：还会有更多行动。世界经济很显然处于糟糕的境地，但它很可能会更糟糕。现在正是将教条和政见搁到一旁，集中寻找实实在在的解决方式的时候。意即，就眼前来说政府干预和合作更重要，而不是报纸通常所青睐报道的纳税人、政客或是对自由市场的质疑（诸如此类问题）。
The patient writhing on the floor
在地板上痛苦挣扎的病人
If the panic that has choked the arteries of credit across the globe is not calmed soon, the danger will increase that output in rich economies will not simply shrink, but collapse. The same could happen in many emerging markets, especially those that rely on foreign capital. No country or industry would be spared from the equivalent of a global financial heart attack.
如果阻塞了全球信贷大动脉的恐慌不能迅速被平息，发达国家经济面临的风险将会增加，其产出不会只是收缩，而是崩溃。同样的危机还会发生在新兴市场，尤其是那些依赖外资的地区。没有一个国家或是产业会在全球金融心脏病发作时毫发无伤。
Stockmarkets are in a funk. But the main problem remains the credit markets. In the interbank market the prices banks pay to borrow money from each other are still near record highs. Meanwhile corporate borrowers have found it hard to issue commercial paper, as money-market funds have fled from all but the safest assets. In emerging markets bond spreads have soared and local currencies plunged. And whole countries have begun to get into trouble. The government of Iceland has had to nationalise two of its biggest banks and is frantically seeking a lifeline loan from Russia. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, says there could be balance-of-payments problems in up to 30 developing countries.
各国股市都处在恐慌之中。但主要的问题仍在信贷市场。银行间拆借市场的利率继续创出新高。同时，随着货币市场资金纷纷逃离到最安全的资产上，企业借贷者发 现商业票据难以发行。新兴市场上，债券价格飞涨，本国货币贬值。有些国家已经开始陷入困境。冰岛政府被迫将其最大的两家银行国有化，并发狂似的向俄罗斯寻求续命贷款。世界银行主席罗伯特?佐立克表示，超过30个发展中国家将出现国际收支差额问题。
The damage to the real economy is becoming apparent. In America consumer credit is now shrinking, and around 159,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, the most since 2003. Some industries are hurting badly: car sales are at their lowest level in 16 years as would-be buyers are unable to get credit. General Motors has temporarily shut some of its factories in Europe. Across the globe forward-looking indicators, such as surveys of purchasing managers, are horribly gloomy.
实体经济受到的损伤正在逐渐显现。美国消费信贷在收缩，9月失业人数高达159,000人，创2003年以来最高。一些产业也被严重挫伤：因为意愿购车消费者无法取得贷款，汽车销售量降到16年以来最低。通用汽车临时关闭了数家欧洲工厂。全球经济展望的指标，如采购经理人指数等，都表现得十分低迷。
If the odds of a rich-world recession have risen towards a near certainty, the emerging world as a whole is slowing rather than slumping. China still seems fairly resilient. Taken as a whole, though, growth in the world economy seems likely to slow below 3% next year—a pace that many count as recessionary. So the prospects are grim enough, but a continuing credit drought would make this much worse.
如果说发达经济衰退的可能性已经渐成定局，新兴经济体集体增长下滑的可能性则高于衰退。中国经济的复原能力看起来仍然非常强劲。整体而言，全球经济明年的增速极有可能下滑到3%以下，普遍将这一速度视为经济进入衰退期。因此，前景可谓十分严峻，但信贷市场持续干涸可能将情况变得糟糕得多。
Lessons old and new
新旧教训
The lesson of history is that early, decisive government action can stem the pain and cost of banking crises. In the 1990s Sweden moved to recapitalise its banks quickly and recovered quickly; in Japan, where regulators failed to tackle toxic debt, the slump lasted for most of the decade. The twist is that this credit crisis is deeper (it affects many more types of markets) and broader (many more countries). Any solution has to be both more systemic and more global than before. One country trying to mend one part of its banking system will not work.
历史的教训是，政府及早、决断采取措施能够减轻危机造成的痛苦和付出的代价。20世纪90年代，瑞典政府快速地向银行注资，其恢复的速度也很快；而在日本，执政者未能处理坏死债务，经济陷入长达近10年的衰退。与以往不同的是，这次信贷危机更严重（影响到各类市场），范围更广（波及到更多国家）。任何解决办法都必须比以往更系统化、更全球化。单一国家试图修正其银行系统某一方面的问题是徒劳的。
The idea of a comprehensive solution sounds simple, if expensive. But politicians have found it hard to grasp. Europeans have remained stubbornly wedded to the notion that the mess was “Made in America”; John McCain and Barack Obama talk as if it was all down to the greed of modern bankers. But financial excesses existed centuries before a brick had been laid on Wall Street. As our special report this week lays out, today’s bust—and the bubble that preceded it—had several causes besides dodgy lending, including a tide of cheap money from emerging economies, outdated regulation, government distortions and poor supervision. Many of these failures were as evident outside America as within it.
全面的解决之道听起来很简单，虽然代价昂贵。但政要们未能领会这一点。欧洲各国始终顽固地执着于这场麻烦是“美国制造”的理念。约翰?麦凯恩和巴拉克?奥巴马则将一切都归咎于现代银行家的贪婪。然而，早在建造华尔街数个世纪之前，金融过剩的问题就存在了。我们在本周的特别报道里指出，造成今天的失败和此前的泡沫的原因不仅只有高风险地借贷，还包括来自新兴经济体的廉价资本潮，过时的规则，体制扭曲和监管不力。这些失误在美国和其他地方都很明显。
With a flawed diagnosis of the causes of the crisis, it is hardly surprising that many policymakers have failed to understand its progression. Today’s failure of confidence is based on three related issues: the solvency of banks, their ability to fund themselves in illiquid markets and the health of the real economy. The bursting of the housing bubble has led to hefty credit losses: most Western financial institutions are short of capital and some are insolvent. But liquidity is a more urgent problem. America’s decision last month to let Lehman Brothers fail—and the losses that implied to money-market funds that held its debt—prompted a global run on wholesale credit markets. It has become hard for banks, even healthy ones, to find finance; large companies with healthy cash flows have also been cut off from all but the shortest-term financing. That has increased worries about the real economy, which itself adds to the worries about banks’ solvency.
鉴于对这场危机症结的诊断有误，许多决策者未能把握其进展也就不足为奇了。今天的信心崩溃建立在三个相互关联的问题上：银行的偿付能力，银行在流动性冻结的市场上融资的能力，实体经济是否健康。房地产市场泡沫的破裂造成严重的信贷损失：大多数西方国家金融机构资金短缺，部分已经破产。但流动性的问题更急迫。美国上个月让雷曼兄弟破产加速了全球大规模信贷市场的流动性问题，其破产造成的损失牵连到持有其债券的货币市场基金。银行融资难度越来越大，即使是健康的银行。现金流良好的大型企业也得不到贷款，只能获得最短期的融资。对实体经济的担忧由此增加，反过来又进一步增加了对银行偿付能力的担忧。
This analysis suggests that governments must attack all three concerns at once. The priority, in terms of stemming the panic, is to unblock clogged credit markets. In most cases that means using central banks as an alternative source of short-term cash. This week the Fed took another step in that direction: by buying commercial paper, it is now in effect lending direct to companies. The British approach is equally bold. Alongside the Bank of England’s provision of short-term cash, the Treasury says it will sell guarantees for as much as ￡250 billion ($430 billion) of new short-term and medium-term debts issued by the banks. That is risky: if left for any length of time, those pledges give banks an incentive to behave recklessly. But a temporary guarantee system offers the best chance of stemming the panic, and if it were internationally co-ordinated it would be both more credible and less risky than a collection of disparate national promises.
基于上述分析，政府应该立刻对这三个问题全面出击。首先，在阻止恐慌方面，是为堵塞的信贷市场清除障碍。在大多数情况下，这意味着将中央银行作为一个能够 提供短期资金的来源。本周美联储朝着这个方向又迈进了一步：通过购买商业票据，美联储现在可以直接向企业提供有效的贷款。英国的举措也是同样大胆。除英格兰银行（英国央行）提供短期资金外，财政部还表示将为银行发行的新短期和中期债券提供2500亿英镑（4300亿美元）的担保。这种做法存在风险：如果没有限定期限，这些保证会给银行不顾风险地经营提供动机（道德风险）。但暂时的担保系统是阻止恐慌的最佳选择，如果是全球一致行动，则比大量国家各自的承诺更加可靠、风险更低。
The second prong of a crisis-resolution strategy must aim to boost banks’ capital. A new IMF report suggests Western banks need some $675 billion of new equity to prevent banks from rapidly reducing the number of loans on their books and hurting the real economy. Although there is plenty of private capital sloshing around, there is a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody wants to buy equity in an industry without enough capital. It is becoming abundantly clear that government funds—or at least government intervention—will be necessary to catalyse the rebuilding of banks’ balance sheets. Initially, America focused more on buying tainted assets from banks; now it seems keener on the “European” approach of injecting capital into their banks. Some degree of divergence is inevitable, but more co-ordination is needed.
解决危机战略的第二击是增加银行资本金。IMF的一份最新报告指出，西方国家银行需要大约6750亿美元的新增资本，以阻止其账面上贷款数量快速减少，避免损害到实体经济。尽管还有大量的私人资本四处流窜，但这是一个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题：没有人愿意在一个缺乏足够资本的行业里购买股权。很显然，政府必须注资——或至少是政府干预，加速重建银行的资产负债表。最初，美国更多地集中在从银行购买问题资产，现在更青睐“欧洲”作法——向银行注入资本。一些分歧不可避免，但还需要更多的协调。
Third, policymakers should act together to cushion the economic fallout. Now that commodity prices have plunged, the inflation risk has dramatically receded across the rich world. With asset prices plummeting and economies shrinking, deflation will soon be a bigger worry. The interest-rate cuts are an important start. Ideally, policymakers would not use only monetary policy. For instance, China could do a lot to help the rest of the world economy (and itself) by loosening fiscal policy and allowing its currency to appreciate more quickly.
第三，决策者应该联合行动帮助经济软着陆。如今，大宗商品价格跳水，通货膨胀的风险已经戏剧化地从发达国家消退了。随着资产价格垂直下落和经济收缩，通缩将很快成为更大的担忧。各国纷纷降息是一个重要的开端。理想状态下，决策者不应该仅仅使用货币政策。举例而言，中国可以通过放松财政政策和加速人民币升值来帮助其他国家经济（和中国自身）。
A long wait
长久等待
Even in the best of circumstances, the consequences of the biggest asset and credit bubble in history will linger. But if the panic is stemmed, it could be a manageable problem, cushioned by the economic strength in the emerging world. Efforts at international economic co-operation have a patchy record. In the 1980s the Plaza and Louvre accords, designed respectively to push the dollar down and to prop it up, met with mixed success. Today’s problems are deeper and more countries are involved. But the stakes are also much higher.
即使在最佳的环境里，史上最大的资产和信贷泡沫破灭的后续效应也将延续很久。但是，如果恐慌能够消除，在新兴市场经济力量的缓冲下，这场危机会是一个容易解决的问题。国际间经济协作的成就有着一页斑驳的记录。在20世纪80年代，广场协议和卢浮宫协议的制定分别促成美元贬值和升值，取得了相互混杂的成功。 今天的问题更加严重，牵涉的国家更多。但赌注也高得多。
译者：kahlen
信贷危机
Saving the system 拯救系统
Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldness is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe
最后还有一线希望，为避免一场全球经济大灾难发生，还需要更大胆
CONFIDENCE is everything in finance. Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this essential ingredient. In America Congress dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan. In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere. This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap.
对金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周为止，那些努力应对信贷危机的政要们在重建信心这一基本因素上作为甚少。在美国，国会犹豫不决地通过了布什政府7000亿美元的救市计划。在欧洲，政府间随意地玩着以邻为壑的政治游戏，各国纷纷对本国存款进行担保，没有顾及这样会动摇其他国家的银行。然而，还是让人们看到了第一束希望的曙光——全球将一致行动弥合信心裂缝。
One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and (officially a coincidence) the People’s Bank of China. Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks. But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain. The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers. More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years.
一个明确的信号是10月8日全球主要央行空前地联合降息，其中包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行（英格兰银行）和中国央行（官方称是巧合）。许多欧洲大陆国 家也开始计划调整银行资本结构。但最令人惊骇的进展发生在美国和英国。美联储将对其短期内对银行提供的贷款规模扩大到9000亿美元，为原来的两倍，并宣布将直接从企业购买未担保的商业票据。更令人惊讶的是，迄今为止不知所措到极点的戈登?布朗政府采取了应对危机的第一个系统的计划，不仅向银行提供资本和 短期贷款，还对三年内到期的新债进行担保。
This is certainly progress, but it is not enough (see our extended finance section). The world’s finance ministers and central bankers, gathering in Washington, DC, this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, should deliver a simple message: more will be done. The world economy is plainly in a poor state, but it could get a lot worse. This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers. That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.
这的确是个进步，但还不够。本周末，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行的年会将在华盛顿召开，与会的世界各国财长和央行行长应该传递出一条简单的信 息：还会有更多行动。世界经济很显然处于糟糕的境地，但它很可能会更糟糕。现在正是将教条和政见搁到一旁，集中寻找实实在在的解决方式的时候。意即，就眼前来说政府干预和合作更重要，而不是报纸通常所青睐报道的纳税人、政客或是对自由市场的质疑（诸如此类问题）。
The patient writhing on the floor
在地板上痛苦挣扎的病人
If the panic that has choked the arteries of credit across the globe is not calmed soon, the danger will increase that output in rich economies will not simply shrink, but collapse. The same could happen in many emerging markets, especially those that rely on foreign capital. No country or industry would be spared from the equivalent of a global financial heart attack.
如果阻塞了全球信贷大动脉的恐慌不能迅速被平息，发达国家经济面临的风险将会增加，其产出不会只是收缩，而是崩溃。同样的危机还会发生在新兴市场，尤其是那些依赖外资的地区。没有一个国家或是产业会在全球金融心脏病发作时毫发无伤。
Stockmarkets are in a funk. But the main problem remains the credit markets. In the interbank market the prices banks pay to borrow money from each other are still near record highs. Meanwhile corporate borrowers have found it hard to issue commercial paper, as money-market funds have fled from all but the safest assets. In emerging markets bond spreads have soared and local currencies plunged. And whole countries have begun to get into trouble. The government of Iceland has had to nationalise two of its biggest banks and is frantically seeking a lifeline loan from Russia. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, says there could be balance-of-payments problems in up to 30 developing countries.
各国股市都处在恐慌之中。但主要的问题仍在信贷市场。银行间拆借市场的利率继续创出新高。同时，随着货币市场资金纷纷逃离到最安全的资产上，企业借贷者发 现商业票据难以发行。新兴市场上，债券价格飞涨，本国货币贬值。有些国家已经开始陷入困境。冰岛政府被迫将其最大的两家银行国有化，并发狂似的向俄罗斯寻求续命贷款。世界银行主席罗伯特?佐立克表示，超过30个发展中国家将出现国际收支差额问题。
The damage to the real economy is becoming apparent. In America consumer credit is now shrinking, and around 159,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, the most since 2003. Some industries are hurting badly: car sales are at their lowest level in 16 years as would-be buyers are unable to get credit. General Motors has temporarily shut some of its factories in Europe. Across the globe forward-looking indicators, such as surveys of purchasing managers, are horribly gloomy.
实体经济受到的损伤正在逐渐显现。美国消费信贷在收缩，9月失业人数高达159,000人，创2003年以来最高。一些产业也被严重挫伤：因为意愿购车消费者无法取得贷款，汽车销售量降到16年以来最低。通用汽车临时关闭了数家欧洲工厂。全球经济展望的指标，如采购经理人指数等，都表现得十分低迷。
If the odds of a rich-world recession have risen towards a near certainty, the emerging world as a whole is slowing rather than slumping. China still seems fairly resilient. Taken as a whole, though, growth in the world economy seems likely to slow below 3% next year—a pace that many count as recessionary. So the prospects are grim enough, but a continuing credit drought would make this much worse.
如果说发达经济衰退的可能性已经渐成定局，新兴经济体集体增长下滑的可能性则高于衰退。中国经济的复原能力看起来仍然非常强劲。整体而言，全球经济明年的增速极有可能下滑到3%以下，普遍将这一速度视为经济进入衰退期。因此，前景可谓十分严峻，但信贷市场持续干涸可能将情况变得糟糕得多。
Lessons old and new
新旧教训
The lesson of history is that early, decisive government action can stem the pain and cost of banking crises. In the 1990s Sweden moved to recapitalise its banks quickly and recovered quickly; in Japan, where regulators failed to tackle toxic debt, the slump lasted for most of the decade. The twist is that this credit crisis is deeper (it affects many more types of markets) and broader (many more countries). Any solution has to be both more systemic and more global than before. One country trying to mend one part of its banking system will not work.
历史的教训是，政府及早、决断采取措施能够减轻危机造成的痛苦和付出的代价。20世纪90年代，瑞典政府快速地向银行注资，其恢复的速度也很快；而在日本，执政者未能处理坏死债务，经济陷入长达近10年的衰退。与以往不同的是，这次信贷危机更严重（影响到各类市场），范围更广（波及到更多国家）。任何解决办法都必须比以往更系统化、更全球化。单一国家试图修正其银行系统某一方面的问题是徒劳的。
The idea of a comprehensive solution sounds simple, if expensive. But politicians have found it hard to grasp. Europeans have remained stubbornly wedded to the notion that the mess was “Made in America”; John McCain and Barack Obama talk as if it was all down to the greed of modern bankers. But financial excesses existed centuries before a brick had been laid on Wall Street. As our special report this week lays out, today’s bust—and the bubble that preceded it—had several causes besides dodgy lending, including a tide of cheap money from emerging economies, outdated regulation, government distortions and poor supervision. Many of these failures were as evident outside America as within it.
全面的解决之道听起来很简单，虽然代价昂贵。但政要们未能领会这一点。欧洲各国始终顽固地执着于这场麻烦是“美国制造”的理念。约翰?麦凯恩和巴拉克?奥巴马则将一切都归咎于现代银行家的贪婪。然而，早在建造华尔街数个世纪之前，金融过剩的问题就存在了。我们在本周的特别报道里指出，造成今天的失败和此前的泡沫的原因不仅只有高风险地借贷，还包括来自新兴经济体的廉价资本潮，过时的规则，体制扭曲和监管不力。这些失误在美国和其他地方都很明显。
With a flawed diagnosis of the causes of the crisis, it is hardly surprising that many policymakers have failed to understand its progression. Today’s failure of confidence is based on three related issues: the solvency of banks, their ability to fund themselves in illiquid markets and the health of the real economy. The bursting of the housing bubble has led to hefty credit losses: most Western financial institutions are short of capital and some are insolvent. But liquidity is a more urgent problem. America’s decision last month to let Lehman Brothers fail—and the losses that implied to money-market funds that held its debt—prompted a global run on wholesale credit markets. It has become hard for banks, even healthy ones, to find finance; large companies with healthy cash flows have also been cut off from all but the shortest-term financing. That has increased worries about the real economy, which itself adds to the worries about banks’ solvency.
鉴于对这场危机症结的诊断有误，许多决策者未能把握其进展也就不足为奇了。今天的信心崩溃建立在三个相互关联的问题上：银行的偿付能力，银行在流动性冻结的市场上融资的能力，实体经济是否健康。房地产市场泡沫的破裂造成严重的信贷损失：大多数西方国家金融机构资金短缺，部分已经破产。但流动性的问题更急迫。美国上个月让雷曼兄弟破产加速了全球大规模信贷市场的流动性问题，其破产造成的损失牵连到持有其债券的货币市场基金。银行融资难度越来越大，即使是健康的银行。现金流良好的大型企业也得不到贷款，只能获得最短期的融资。对实体经济的担忧由此增加，反过来又进一步增加了对银行偿付能力的担忧。
This analysis suggests that governments must attack all three concerns at once. The priority, in terms of stemming the panic, is to unblock clogged credit markets. In most cases that means using central banks as an alternative source of short-term cash. This week the Fed took another step in that direction: by buying commercial paper, it is now in effect lending direct to companies. The British approach is equally bold. Alongside the Bank of England’s provision of short-term cash, the Treasury says it will sell guarantees for as much as ￡250 billion ($430 billion) of new short-term and medium-term debts issued by the banks. That is risky: if left for any length of time, those pledges give banks an incentive to behave recklessly. But a temporary guarantee system offers the best chance of stemming the panic, and if it were internationally co-ordinated it would be both more credible and less risky than a collection of disparate national promises.
基于上述分析，政府应该立刻对这三个问题全面出击。首先，在阻止恐慌方面，是为堵塞的信贷市场清除障碍。在大多数情况下，这意味着将中央银行作为一个能够 提供短期资金的来源。本周美联储朝着这个方向又迈进了一步：通过购买商业票据，美联储现在可以直接向企业提供有效的贷款。英国的举措也是同样大胆。除英格兰银行（英国央行）提供短期资金外，财政部还表示将为银行发行的新短期和中期债券提供2500亿英镑（4300亿美元）的担保。这种做法存在风险：如果没有限定期限，这些保证会给银行不顾风险地经营提供动机（道德风险）。但暂时的担保系统是阻止恐慌的最佳选择，如果是全球一致行动，则比大量国家各自的承诺更加可靠、风险更低。
The second prong of a crisis-resolution strategy must aim to boost banks’ capital. A new IMF report suggests Western banks need some $675 billion of new equity to prevent banks from rapidly reducing the number of loans on their books and hurting the real economy. Although there is plenty of private capital sloshing around, there is a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody wants to buy equity in an industry without enough capital. It is becoming abundantly clear that government funds—or at least government intervention—will be necessary to catalyse the rebuilding of banks’ balance sheets. Initially, America focused more on buying tainted assets from banks; now it seems keener on the “European” approach of injecting capital into their banks. Some degree of divergence is inevitable, but more co-ordination is needed.
解决危机战略的第二击是增加银行资本金。IMF的一份最新报告指出，西方国家银行需要大约6750亿美元的新增资本，以阻止其账面上贷款数量快速减少，避免损害到实体经济。尽管还有大量的私人资本四处流窜，但这是一个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题：没有人愿意在一个缺乏足够资本的行业里购买股权。很显然，政府必须注资——或至少是政府干预，加速重建银行的资产负债表。最初，美国更多地集中在从银行购买问题资产，现在更青睐“欧洲”作法——向银行注入资本。一些分歧不可避免，但还需要更多的协调。
Third, policymakers should act together to cushion the economic fallout. Now that commodity prices have plunged, the inflation risk has dramatically receded across the rich world. With asset prices plummeting and economies shrinking, deflation will soon be a bigger worry. The interest-rate cuts are an important start. Ideally, policymakers would not use only monetary policy. For instance, China could do a lot to help the rest of the world economy (and itself) by loosening fiscal policy and allowing its currency to appreciate more quickly.
第三，决策者应该联合行动帮助经济软着陆。如今，大宗商品价格跳水，通货膨胀的风险已经戏剧化地从发达国家消退了。随着资产价格垂直下落和经济收缩，通缩将很快成为更大的担忧。各国纷纷降息是一个重要的开端。理想状态下，决策者不应该仅仅使用货币政策。举例而言，中国可以通过放松财政政策和加速人民币升值来帮助其他国家经济（和中国自身）。
A long wait
长久等待
Even in the best of circumstances, the consequences of the biggest asset and credit bubble in history will linger. But if the panic is stemmed, it could be a manageable problem, cushioned by the economic strength in the emerging world. Efforts at international economic co-operation have a patchy record. In the 1980s the Plaza and Louvre accords, designed respectively to push the dollar down and to prop it up, met with mixed success. Today’s problems are deeper and more countries are involved. But the stakes are also much higher.
即使在最佳的环境里，史上最大的资产和信贷泡沫破灭的后续效应也将延续很久。但是，如果恐慌能够消除，在新兴市场经济力量的缓冲下，这场危机会是一个容易解决的问题。国际间经济协作的成就有着一页斑驳的记录。在20世纪80年代，广场协议和卢浮宫协议的制定分别促成美元贬值和升值，取得了相互混杂的成功。 今天的问题更加严重，牵涉的国家更多。但赌注也高得多。
译者：kahlen
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
The mortgage-rescue plan
抵押贷款救援计划
Will the bail-out work?
救援计划会奏效吗？
Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC
From Economist.com
The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection. Money markets call for urgent attention
救援计划在众议院由否决变为通过后成了法案。货币市场亟需重点关切
“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for passage of the $700 billion bail-out plan. United they were. The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday. On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140; 91 Republicans did so, up from 65. As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.
“金融危机使我们以一种陌生的方式团结到一起。”美国众议院多数党（民主党）领袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇请求国会通过7000亿救援方案的文章里如是说。他们确实团结到了一起。众议院以263对171的大规模票数差距通过了救援计划，这与周一的228对205否决形成了鲜明的对比。在周五（10月3日）的投票中，172位民主党议员赞成，比周一上升了32人；91位共和党人赞成，比周一上升了26人。因为参议院已经批准了此项议案，所以很快就会被布什签署（使之生效）。
The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street. The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill. In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows. The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September (the steepest in five years) and because of furious business lobbying.
周一众议院的否决主要是由于两方面的原因，一是共和党保守派人士认为这是社会主义行为；二是民主党自由派人士认为此项方案对穷人帮助不足，并担心选民因为其拯救华尔街而抛弃他们。周一的否决引发了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此项法案。最终，许多不相关的条款被加入其中，从更高的联邦储户保险限制到儿童玩具工厂的免税措施。投票形势之所以改变，是因为众议员不堪市场混乱，非农劳动人口就业数九月下降159，000（这是五年来的最大降幅）的消息而且还有愤怒的商业团体游说的因素。
Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks. Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.
现在，真正的考验到来了：这个法案是否会奏效呢？财政部计划用一周的时间来准备安排第一笔购买抵押贷款资产的拍卖会，因此第一笔购买交易会在几周内完成。财长保尔森很快就会行动：他有权从私人机构购买抵押贷款资产或是给濒临倒闭的机构注资。
Speed is of the essence. Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods. Most want their money back within a day. Massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.
速度是极其重要的。银行间极其不愿意互相拆借，除非对方能够承受一个破纪录的惩罚性的利率以及最短的期限。许多银行希望他们借出的钱能够在一天内归还。美联储及其它央行的大规模流动性资金注入并未使市场流动性不足的情况改善多少。
Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate. The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone. This hurts companies large and small. General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns. Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories. The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.
更糟的是，公司可使用的短期贷款正在以惊人的速度下降。商业票据市场自去年六月以来萎缩了约6000亿美元，而仅在过去的一周里就减少了1000亿美元。这对大大小小的公司都有伤害。通用电器不得不筹集新的资金，部分原因就是由于对融资的忧虑。零售商也报出其在购买假日季节物品的融资上也有问题。汽车销售商AutoNation的老板告诉CNBC：”银行在寻找各种理由对你的贷款申请说‘不’…我们已经从信贷紧缩到信贷恐慌了。”银行在竭力引用”市场混乱 “的条款来减小信贷或是提高费率以使其恢复元气，但是这使得企业财务主管不能确定他们多久才能给雇员发工资或是多久才能去购买原材料。
The pain is reaching municipalities and states. Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy. California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.
这些状况已经波及各个州和自治市。阿拉巴马州的杰弗逊郡已经濒临破产。加州州长施瓦辛格据说已在一封给财政部长的信中发出警告：他的州维持日常运行的现金即将耗尽，需要从联邦政府紧急贷款70亿美元。
While the Troubled Asset Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more pressing problem, the blockage in the money markets. Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote. Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly. American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.
问题资产救援计划（TARP）可能最终会解困抵押市场，重塑银行信心并重新开始放贷，但是还需要很长时间来解决一个迫在眉睫的问题：货币市场的堵塞。非常说明问题的是，短期政府债券（投资者寻求安全的最流行的目的地）的收益在众议院表决后变化不大。银行间拆借利差只有略微下跌。美国股市最终将投票前数小时的积累的涨幅完全跌尽。
While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear. Moreover, the target is moving. Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks. Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders. More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals. On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal. Citi threatened to sue.
在TARP可能提升信心的同时，它购买资本的时机和范围程度依赖于支付的价格，而这价格尚未明朗。此外，目标也在转移。即使房价很快企稳，非抵押信贷会随着经济下滑而继续恶化。随着倒闭风潮开始在小型和中型的银行（借贷机构）中蔓延，银行监管者将会停止他们的工作。许多这样的中小银行会投身于大型银行以寻求庇护。在政府的撮合下，花旗集团答应购买美联银行的银行业务部门四天后，美联银行将其卖给富国银行。花旗威胁将会提出诉讼。
The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week. European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discuss forging a more co-ordinated response, possibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund. And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks. After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under pressure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.
欧洲的情况更糟。欧洲各国银行在上周被迫注资支持几家银行。欧洲几国领袖预定将在本周末会面商讨出台更加协调合作的应对措施，可能包括一个整个大陆范围的银行拯救基金。而对偿付能力的疑虑已经超出银行范畴，在其它金融机构也蔓延开来。在本周股价急剧下挫后，几家大型美国保险商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于压力不得不募集新的资本作为防护堡垒来抵御风暴的袭击。
Until the TARP shows results, the pressure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis. Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congress for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”. His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D. Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depression. Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit. The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.
在TARP有效果前，美联储控制危机的压力依然非常大。作为TARP出台的主要推动者，美联储主席伯南克祝贺国会，因为这显示了”政府为此所付出的正是支持和加强我们的经济。”伯南克的这番言语颇似他以前作为学者时，形容富兰克林D.罗斯福总统抵御大萧条举措的论调。伯南克明确的是，他将美联储也置身这个”付出”之中：”我们会继续自行使用我们所有的权力来减缓信贷市场的瓦解，并培育出一个强壮的，充满活力的经济体。”自八月以来，美联储已将其资产负债表扩大了6000亿美元（这是一个比整个TARP计划小不了多少的数目），这将会用中央银行信贷来代替消失的私人信贷。美联储在十月底的政策会上或之前，下调短期利率（从现在的2％调至1.5％）的可能性很高。
译者：rushor
抵押贷款救援计划
Will the bail-out work?
救援计划会奏效吗？
Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC
From Economist.com
The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection. Money markets call for urgent attention
救援计划在众议院由否决变为通过后成了法案。货币市场亟需重点关切
“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for passage of the $700 billion bail-out plan. United they were. The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday. On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140; 91 Republicans did so, up from 65. As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.
“金融危机使我们以一种陌生的方式团结到一起。”美国众议院多数党（民主党）领袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇请求国会通过7000亿救援方案的文章里如是说。他们确实团结到了一起。众议院以263对171的大规模票数差距通过了救援计划，这与周一的228对205否决形成了鲜明的对比。在周五（10月3日）的投票中，172位民主党议员赞成，比周一上升了32人；91位共和党人赞成，比周一上升了26人。因为参议院已经批准了此项议案，所以很快就会被布什签署（使之生效）。
The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street. The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill. In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows. The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September (the steepest in five years) and because of furious business lobbying.
周一众议院的否决主要是由于两方面的原因，一是共和党保守派人士认为这是社会主义行为；二是民主党自由派人士认为此项方案对穷人帮助不足，并担心选民因为其拯救华尔街而抛弃他们。周一的否决引发了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此项法案。最终，许多不相关的条款被加入其中，从更高的联邦储户保险限制到儿童玩具工厂的免税措施。投票形势之所以改变，是因为众议员不堪市场混乱，非农劳动人口就业数九月下降159，000（这是五年来的最大降幅）的消息而且还有愤怒的商业团体游说的因素。
Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks. Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.
现在，真正的考验到来了：这个法案是否会奏效呢？财政部计划用一周的时间来准备安排第一笔购买抵押贷款资产的拍卖会，因此第一笔购买交易会在几周内完成。财长保尔森很快就会行动：他有权从私人机构购买抵押贷款资产或是给濒临倒闭的机构注资。
Speed is of the essence. Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods. Most want their money back within a day. Massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.
速度是极其重要的。银行间极其不愿意互相拆借，除非对方能够承受一个破纪录的惩罚性的利率以及最短的期限。许多银行希望他们借出的钱能够在一天内归还。美联储及其它央行的大规模流动性资金注入并未使市场流动性不足的情况改善多少。
Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate. The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone. This hurts companies large and small. General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns. Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories. The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.
更糟的是，公司可使用的短期贷款正在以惊人的速度下降。商业票据市场自去年六月以来萎缩了约6000亿美元，而仅在过去的一周里就减少了1000亿美元。这对大大小小的公司都有伤害。通用电器不得不筹集新的资金，部分原因就是由于对融资的忧虑。零售商也报出其在购买假日季节物品的融资上也有问题。汽车销售商AutoNation的老板告诉CNBC：”银行在寻找各种理由对你的贷款申请说‘不’…我们已经从信贷紧缩到信贷恐慌了。”银行在竭力引用”市场混乱 “的条款来减小信贷或是提高费率以使其恢复元气，但是这使得企业财务主管不能确定他们多久才能给雇员发工资或是多久才能去购买原材料。
The pain is reaching municipalities and states. Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy. California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.
这些状况已经波及各个州和自治市。阿拉巴马州的杰弗逊郡已经濒临破产。加州州长施瓦辛格据说已在一封给财政部长的信中发出警告：他的州维持日常运行的现金即将耗尽，需要从联邦政府紧急贷款70亿美元。
While the Troubled Asset Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more pressing problem, the blockage in the money markets. Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote. Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly. American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.
问题资产救援计划（TARP）可能最终会解困抵押市场，重塑银行信心并重新开始放贷，但是还需要很长时间来解决一个迫在眉睫的问题：货币市场的堵塞。非常说明问题的是，短期政府债券（投资者寻求安全的最流行的目的地）的收益在众议院表决后变化不大。银行间拆借利差只有略微下跌。美国股市最终将投票前数小时的积累的涨幅完全跌尽。
While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear. Moreover, the target is moving. Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks. Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders. More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals. On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal. Citi threatened to sue.
在TARP可能提升信心的同时，它购买资本的时机和范围程度依赖于支付的价格，而这价格尚未明朗。此外，目标也在转移。即使房价很快企稳，非抵押信贷会随着经济下滑而继续恶化。随着倒闭风潮开始在小型和中型的银行（借贷机构）中蔓延，银行监管者将会停止他们的工作。许多这样的中小银行会投身于大型银行以寻求庇护。在政府的撮合下，花旗集团答应购买美联银行的银行业务部门四天后，美联银行将其卖给富国银行。花旗威胁将会提出诉讼。
The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week. European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discuss forging a more co-ordinated response, possibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund. And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks. After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under pressure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.
欧洲的情况更糟。欧洲各国银行在上周被迫注资支持几家银行。欧洲几国领袖预定将在本周末会面商讨出台更加协调合作的应对措施，可能包括一个整个大陆范围的银行拯救基金。而对偿付能力的疑虑已经超出银行范畴，在其它金融机构也蔓延开来。在本周股价急剧下挫后，几家大型美国保险商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于压力不得不募集新的资本作为防护堡垒来抵御风暴的袭击。
Until the TARP shows results, the pressure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis. Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congress for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”. His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D. Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depression. Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit. The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.
在TARP有效果前，美联储控制危机的压力依然非常大。作为TARP出台的主要推动者，美联储主席伯南克祝贺国会，因为这显示了”政府为此所付出的正是支持和加强我们的经济。”伯南克的这番言语颇似他以前作为学者时，形容富兰克林D.罗斯福总统抵御大萧条举措的论调。伯南克明确的是，他将美联储也置身这个”付出”之中：”我们会继续自行使用我们所有的权力来减缓信贷市场的瓦解，并培育出一个强壮的，充满活力的经济体。”自八月以来，美联储已将其资产负债表扩大了6000亿美元（这是一个比整个TARP计划小不了多少的数目），这将会用中央银行信贷来代替消失的私人信贷。美联储在十月底的政策会上或之前，下调短期利率（从现在的2％调至1.5％）的可能性很高。
译者：rushor
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
Financial crisis
金融危机
Into the land of the unknown
前途未卜
Sep 30th 2008 | LONDON, NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC
From Economist.com
Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America
美国救市计划遭拒后全球市场继续混乱
Reuters
HOW many votes in Congress will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th. Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.
最近的金融巨变将改变多少国会的选票?这是继9月29日周一众议院以228票反对：205票支持挫败7000亿美元救市计划之后，华盛顿正在进行的计算。对此项救市计划，民主党140票支持：95票反对，而共和党则是133票反对：65票支持。
Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills. But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pass. Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points loss. Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depression, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup. The S&P closed 29% below its peak. Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%. The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.
银行家们对妥协后的鲍尔森的救市计划会治愈金融系统的疾患不抱幻想。但是他们中的大多数认为该救市计划是往正确的方向前进，并希望它能够得以通过。救市计划遭拒引起股市重挫。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌7%，创历史最大点数跌幅。或许，对一个有着滑向萧条之危险的经济体来说，标准普尔500指数股票里收盘唯一上涨的一只股票是 美国汤品生产商金宝汤（Campbell’s Soup）就是再平常不过的事情了。标准普尔500指数比其历史峰值跌29%收盘。iPhone开发者苹果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市场对消费者需求 将会萎缩的恐慌。美国股市收盘后,亚洲股市还在下挫，欧洲股市的下挫则延续到周二早晨。
Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point. Banks grew even less willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk. Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt issued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like. In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.
更糟的是，已经运转不良的信贷市场濒临崩溃。周一，银行更为不愿互相拆借，一有风 吹草动，货币基金就出逃任何投资项目。一些公司苦苦挣扎于结转商业票据，发行短期债券来筹措流动资金，支付工资和其他费用。在维持货币市场流动性的努力 中，美联储把一项对银行的关键贷款供应规模翻番，达到3000亿美元，并且延伸了与其他央行关于它们为在海外经营的美国的银行注资的协议。
These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts. But many banks are now assumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent. Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail. And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators. The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.
这些空前的注资举措目的在于缓解忧虑，这种忧虑是：孱弱的参与者在同业拆借市场上 无能力偿还其所欠债务。但是现在许多银行被认为不仅仅是流动性差，而且是无偿付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家储蓄银行——华盛顿互惠银行 （Washington Mutual）破产，成为美国有史以来最大的倒闭银行。周一花旗集团同意购买大部分美联（Wachovia）资产，美联是一家比华盛顿互惠银行规模更大的 银行，此项交易由监管方撮合。金融危机的痛楚在欧洲也急剧增强。
The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congress to approve an unusually aggressive and early fiscal intervention. (It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s). But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives. “On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week. It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a mess in Wall Street.
对乔治?布什，财长汉克?保尔森，联储出席本?伯南克而言，否决票是一大打击。他 们曾对不遏制危机的后果给出警告，寄希望于说服国会通过此项非比一般地积极地也是早期地财政干预。（上世纪80年代，对美国储蓄和贷款银行普遍破产的一个 系统化处理耗费了许多年）。但是因为此次干预相对要早，选民们没有意识到这场危机对他们的生活的重大影响。宾夕法尼亚州民主党人保罗·坎乔斯基（Paul Kanjorski）上周对保尔森说道：“周一清晨“““太阳升起，人们赶去上班，他们无法理解华盛顿在恐慌什么。”对选民们来说，认同这7000亿美元——他们纳的税被浪费在华尔街的废物上倒是更为轻而易举的事情。
Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties. But polls showed that voters were split; constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill. Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote; the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed. (Passage in the Senate is considered less problematic.) But it should not be taken for granted. Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election. Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.
政党领袖们很大程度上同意对此次金融危机的诊断，连两党的总统候选人也赞同。但是民调显示了选民立场的分裂：反对救市方案的游说电话和邮件纷沓至来。执政官员和政党领袖重新回到此项工作上来，试图使至少12个反对成员改弦易辙；华盛顿和华尔街都预计他们能够办到。（在参议院通过问题不大）但这不应当被看作是他们就欣然接受。倘若对该方案未加修订，任何人改变自己原先立场都会在其再次面临选举时（寻求连任时）受到严苛的批评。另一方面，任何迎合共和党的修订都会损耗民主党的支持，反之亦然。
“You can’t let one day’s trading dictate public policymaking,” argues Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican and member of the Republican Study Committee, a block of conservative members who led opposition to the bill. “The market’s going to be a factor, but we’re looking at the larger picture.” Recalcitrant Republicans would rather see a programme to sell insurance to banks against mortgage defaults, rather than buying assets from them. The Treasury strongly opposes this approach. But there may be other grounds for compromise, such as relaxing mark-to-market accounting or extending the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee of a bank’s liabilities to more than just the first $100,000 of each customer’s deposits. Other proposals include giving banks more time to deduct mortgage-related operating losses from future taxable profits, letting companies repatriate foreign profits tax-free and improving the tax treatment of losses sustained by banks on their holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.
“你不能让单日交易量来指示公共政策制定,” 科特?盖瑞特（Scott Garrett）主张，他是新泽西州共和党人，也是共和党研究委员会的成员，这个委员会由一批领导反对此项救市方案的保守人士组成。“市场将是一个主要问 题，但是我们着眼于全局。”执拗的共和党人宁愿看到一个对银行出售保险以抵御抵押违约损失的计划，也不愿意从银行手里收购资产。财政部强烈反对这种方法。 但是或许有其他妥协的余地，比如放松按市价调整的会计或者提高美国联邦存款保险公司对银行债务的担保，突破原先的每个客户存款担保10万美元的上限。其他建议包括给银行更长的时间从未来的应税收入中扣除目前抵押贷款业务的相关损失；让公司得以免税把在国外所得利润存回美国；并且改善在持有房地美和房利美的股票方面，银行所蒙受的损失的税收待遇。
For their part, more Democrats might back the proposal if the administration also agreed to more fiscal stimulus, in particular public-works spending, or taking any profits on the TARP to low-income housing. A deal may be possible, but time is short: legislators are itching to return to their districts to campaign, and investors’ appetite for risk is ebbing fast. The House is not expected to reconvene before Thursday, to accommodate the Jewish new year.
从民主党这边来看，如果执政当局还同意更多的财政刺激，特别是公共项目开销或是从 问题资产救援计划（TARP）中提取任何利润给低收入住房的话，或许会有更多民主党成员支持这项救市提议。协议达成或许可能，但时间紧迫：立法者（议员 们）急于返回其选区参加竞选，同时投资者的风险胃口迅速萎缩。周二之前众议院不可能重新召集议事，因为这期间包括了犹太新年日。（译者注：很多议员要赶回 去过节）
The House vote also represented a stinging rejection of John McCain, the Republican nominee. Mr McCain suspended his campaign last week for two days, citing the financial crisis, and flew to Washington, DC, to help craft a solution to it. His main task was to persuade reluctant House Republicans to back their own president. In the event they voted against the deal made by their own leadership by two to one. The humiliation meted out to Mr McCain is intense.
众议院的选票也代表了一种对共和党候选人约翰?麦凯恩的无情拒绝。麦凯恩先生上周 称是为金融危机而暂停了两天的竞选，并且亲自飞往华盛顿，来帮助达成一个针对救市计划的解决方案。他的主要任务是说服执拗的共和党人来支持他们共和党自己 的总统。结果，他们以2比1投票反对他们自己的领导阶层制定的计划。麦凯恩先生蒙受的羞辱是相当强烈的。
Amid the efforts to put the deal back together, some small hope remains that not all is lost. What is unlikely to help is the atmosphere of bitterness and recrimination that is pervading Capitol Hill. With some justification, the Democrats are aggrieved to find that they supported Mr Bush’s bill while his own party did not. But the Republicans blame the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, for making a stupidly partisan speech shortly before the vote in which she poured scorn on the Republicans she is trying to court. A lot of bridges will have to be built in a short span of time.
使这项救市方案达成还存一线希望。讥讽的氛围和遍布国会的互相指责是于是无补的。情有可原，民主党会愤愤不平，因为他们发现自己支持布什的救市方案而布什自己的共和党却反对。但是共和党人谴责身为民主党的众议院议长南希-佩罗西，指责她在投票开始前几分钟发表了一个愚蠢的从党派立场出发的讲话，在讲话中她讥讽她要试图拉拢说服的共和党人。短时间内，各方间必须要建立大量沟通。
译者：蓝冰
金融危机
Into the land of the unknown
前途未卜
Sep 30th 2008 | LONDON, NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC
From Economist.com
Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America
美国救市计划遭拒后全球市场继续混乱
Reuters
HOW many votes in Congress will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th. Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.
最近的金融巨变将改变多少国会的选票?这是继9月29日周一众议院以228票反对：205票支持挫败7000亿美元救市计划之后，华盛顿正在进行的计算。对此项救市计划，民主党140票支持：95票反对，而共和党则是133票反对：65票支持。
Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills. But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pass. Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points loss. Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depression, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup. The S&P closed 29% below its peak. Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%. The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.
银行家们对妥协后的鲍尔森的救市计划会治愈金融系统的疾患不抱幻想。但是他们中的大多数认为该救市计划是往正确的方向前进，并希望它能够得以通过。救市计划遭拒引起股市重挫。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌7%，创历史最大点数跌幅。或许，对一个有着滑向萧条之危险的经济体来说，标准普尔500指数股票里收盘唯一上涨的一只股票是 美国汤品生产商金宝汤（Campbell’s Soup）就是再平常不过的事情了。标准普尔500指数比其历史峰值跌29%收盘。iPhone开发者苹果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市场对消费者需求 将会萎缩的恐慌。美国股市收盘后,亚洲股市还在下挫，欧洲股市的下挫则延续到周二早晨。
Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point. Banks grew even less willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk. Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt issued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like. In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.
更糟的是，已经运转不良的信贷市场濒临崩溃。周一，银行更为不愿互相拆借，一有风 吹草动，货币基金就出逃任何投资项目。一些公司苦苦挣扎于结转商业票据，发行短期债券来筹措流动资金，支付工资和其他费用。在维持货币市场流动性的努力 中，美联储把一项对银行的关键贷款供应规模翻番，达到3000亿美元，并且延伸了与其他央行关于它们为在海外经营的美国的银行注资的协议。
These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts. But many banks are now assumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent. Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail. And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators. The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.
这些空前的注资举措目的在于缓解忧虑，这种忧虑是：孱弱的参与者在同业拆借市场上 无能力偿还其所欠债务。但是现在许多银行被认为不仅仅是流动性差，而且是无偿付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家储蓄银行——华盛顿互惠银行 （Washington Mutual）破产，成为美国有史以来最大的倒闭银行。周一花旗集团同意购买大部分美联（Wachovia）资产，美联是一家比华盛顿互惠银行规模更大的 银行，此项交易由监管方撮合。金融危机的痛楚在欧洲也急剧增强。
The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congress to approve an unusually aggressive and early fiscal intervention. (It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s). But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives. “On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week. It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a mess in Wall Street.
对乔治?布什，财长汉克?保尔森，联储出席本?伯南克而言，否决票是一大打击。他 们曾对不遏制危机的后果给出警告，寄希望于说服国会通过此项非比一般地积极地也是早期地财政干预。（上世纪80年代，对美国储蓄和贷款银行普遍破产的一个 系统化处理耗费了许多年）。但是因为此次干预相对要早，选民们没有意识到这场危机对他们的生活的重大影响。宾夕法尼亚州民主党人保罗·坎乔斯基（Paul Kanjorski）上周对保尔森说道：“周一清晨“““太阳升起，人们赶去上班，他们无法理解华盛顿在恐慌什么。”对选民们来说，认同这7000亿美元——他们纳的税被浪费在华尔街的废物上倒是更为轻而易举的事情。
Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties. But polls showed that voters were split; constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill. Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote; the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed. (Passage in the Senate is considered less problematic.) But it should not be taken for granted. Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election. Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.
政党领袖们很大程度上同意对此次金融危机的诊断，连两党的总统候选人也赞同。但是民调显示了选民立场的分裂：反对救市方案的游说电话和邮件纷沓至来。执政官员和政党领袖重新回到此项工作上来，试图使至少12个反对成员改弦易辙；华盛顿和华尔街都预计他们能够办到。（在参议院通过问题不大）但这不应当被看作是他们就欣然接受。倘若对该方案未加修订，任何人改变自己原先立场都会在其再次面临选举时（寻求连任时）受到严苛的批评。另一方面，任何迎合共和党的修订都会损耗民主党的支持，反之亦然。
“You can’t let one day’s trading dictate public policymaking,” argues Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican and member of the Republican Study Committee, a block of conservative members who led opposition to the bill. “The market’s going to be a factor, but we’re looking at the larger picture.” Recalcitrant Republicans would rather see a programme to sell insurance to banks against mortgage defaults, rather than buying assets from them. The Treasury strongly opposes this approach. But there may be other grounds for compromise, such as relaxing mark-to-market accounting or extending the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee of a bank’s liabilities to more than just the first $100,000 of each customer’s deposits. Other proposals include giving banks more time to deduct mortgage-related operating losses from future taxable profits, letting companies repatriate foreign profits tax-free and improving the tax treatment of losses sustained by banks on their holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.
“你不能让单日交易量来指示公共政策制定,” 科特?盖瑞特（Scott Garrett）主张，他是新泽西州共和党人，也是共和党研究委员会的成员，这个委员会由一批领导反对此项救市方案的保守人士组成。“市场将是一个主要问 题，但是我们着眼于全局。”执拗的共和党人宁愿看到一个对银行出售保险以抵御抵押违约损失的计划，也不愿意从银行手里收购资产。财政部强烈反对这种方法。 但是或许有其他妥协的余地，比如放松按市价调整的会计或者提高美国联邦存款保险公司对银行债务的担保，突破原先的每个客户存款担保10万美元的上限。其他建议包括给银行更长的时间从未来的应税收入中扣除目前抵押贷款业务的相关损失；让公司得以免税把在国外所得利润存回美国；并且改善在持有房地美和房利美的股票方面，银行所蒙受的损失的税收待遇。
For their part, more Democrats might back the proposal if the administration also agreed to more fiscal stimulus, in particular public-works spending, or taking any profits on the TARP to low-income housing. A deal may be possible, but time is short: legislators are itching to return to their districts to campaign, and investors’ appetite for risk is ebbing fast. The House is not expected to reconvene before Thursday, to accommodate the Jewish new year.
从民主党这边来看，如果执政当局还同意更多的财政刺激，特别是公共项目开销或是从 问题资产救援计划（TARP）中提取任何利润给低收入住房的话，或许会有更多民主党成员支持这项救市提议。协议达成或许可能，但时间紧迫：立法者（议员 们）急于返回其选区参加竞选，同时投资者的风险胃口迅速萎缩。周二之前众议院不可能重新召集议事，因为这期间包括了犹太新年日。（译者注：很多议员要赶回 去过节）
The House vote also represented a stinging rejection of John McCain, the Republican nominee. Mr McCain suspended his campaign last week for two days, citing the financial crisis, and flew to Washington, DC, to help craft a solution to it. His main task was to persuade reluctant House Republicans to back their own president. In the event they voted against the deal made by their own leadership by two to one. The humiliation meted out to Mr McCain is intense.
众议院的选票也代表了一种对共和党候选人约翰?麦凯恩的无情拒绝。麦凯恩先生上周 称是为金融危机而暂停了两天的竞选，并且亲自飞往华盛顿，来帮助达成一个针对救市计划的解决方案。他的主要任务是说服执拗的共和党人来支持他们共和党自己 的总统。结果，他们以2比1投票反对他们自己的领导阶层制定的计划。麦凯恩先生蒙受的羞辱是相当强烈的。
Amid the efforts to put the deal back together, some small hope remains that not all is lost. What is unlikely to help is the atmosphere of bitterness and recrimination that is pervading Capitol Hill. With some justification, the Democrats are aggrieved to find that they supported Mr Bush’s bill while his own party did not. But the Republicans blame the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, for making a stupidly partisan speech shortly before the vote in which she poured scorn on the Republicans she is trying to court. A lot of bridges will have to be built in a short span of time.
使这项救市方案达成还存一线希望。讥讽的氛围和遍布国会的互相指责是于是无补的。情有可原，民主党会愤愤不平，因为他们发现自己支持布什的救市方案而布什自己的共和党却反对。但是共和党人谴责身为民主党的众议院议长南希-佩罗西，指责她在投票开始前几分钟发表了一个愚蠢的从党派立场出发的讲话，在讲话中她讥讽她要试图拉拢说服的共和党人。短时间内，各方间必须要建立大量沟通。
译者：蓝冰
ADVERTISEMENT
等级大校
威望22
贴子17028
魅力17450
注册时间@2013-08-09
World on the edge
命悬一线的世界
Oct 2nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
Whatever happens in Congress, the crisis is now global; that means governments must work together
无论美国会意思如何，此次危机已经是演变为全球性的了；这就意味着各国政府必须协同作战。
AMERICA’S Congress is not used to being second-guessed. But as lawmakers wrestled in the Capitol, world stockmarkets have been giving real-time odds on the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out becoming law. After the plan’s thrashing by the House of Representatives on September 29th, spurred on by voters’ loathing of “casino capitalism”, investors panicked. Yet as The Economist went to press, they were optimistic that, after winning the Senate’s approval on October 1st, the plan would pass.
美国国会还没有习惯被猜来猜去（不曾被猜测过），但随着法律制定者们在国会大厦中的角力，全球股市都在时时关注布什政府7000亿美元救助法案的进程。9月29日救助计划因选民们对“赌场资本主义”的痛恨而遭到众院拒绝，这个消息让投资者陷入一片恐慌之中。不过在经济学家付印的时候他们还是很乐观的，因为他们在10月1日赢得了参院的批准，该方案应该会通过。
Even if it does, that should not be a cause for optimism. Look beyond the stockmarkets, especially at the seized-up money markets, and there is little to see except bank failures, emergency rescues and high anxiety in the credit markets. These forces are drawing the financial system closer to disaster and the rich world to the edge of a nasty recession (see article). The bail-out package should mitigate the problems, but it will not avert them.
即使方案（放案）通过了，人们也没有理由变得乐观：如果目光放远些，不单单盯着股市、特别是已然停顿的货币市场，那么就除了银行倒闭、紧急救助和充斥焦虑的信贷市场外，就别奢望能看到别的景象了。这些力量正将金融系统拖向灾难，也正将发达国家拽向凶残的经济萧条边缘。整体救助计划（异化）应该可以缓解问题，但却无法完全避免。
The crisis is spreading in two directions—across the Atlantic to Europe, and out of the financial markets into the real economy. Governments have been dealing with it disaster by disaster. They have struggled to gain control not just because of the speed of contagion but also because policymakers, and the public they serve, have failed fully to grasp the breadth and depth of the crisis.
危机向着两个方向展开：地缘上越过大西洋到达欧洲，范围上突破金融市场进入实体经济领域。政府一直应对这接二连三的灾难，他们努力进行控制的原因不仅是因为危机蔓延的速度，还因为政府所服务的决策者和公众完全没有领会到此次危机的深度和广度。
What’s the Icelandic for “domino”?
冰岛人也明白骨牌效应
Step forward, Peer Steinbrück, Germany’s finance minister, who rashly declared on September 25th that America was “the source…and the focus of the crisis”, before heralding the end of its role as the financial superpower. Within days, the focus shifted and Mr Steinbrück and his officials were obliged to arrange a Euro35 billion ($51 billion) loan from German banks and the German government to save Hypo Real Estate, the country’s second-biggest property lender.
德国财长施泰因布吕克在9月25日站出来鲁莽的宣称美国在结束超级金融大国地位之前一直是“危机的源泉和中心”。而数日内该中心旋即发生了转移，施泰恩布 吕克先生和他的同僚们从德国银行和德国政府强行安排了350亿欧元（约合510亿美元），用以拯救Hypo Real Estate这个全国第二大的抵押贷款银行。
The hapless Mr Steinbrück is not alone. European banks were collapsing at a dizzying pace even as Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, declared that “there is no drama in front of us.” Hypo Real Estate was just one of five banks in seven European countries bailed out in three days. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands carved up Fortis, a big bancassurer; Britain nationalised Bradford & Bingley; Belgium, France and Luxembourg saved Dexia; and Iceland rescued Glitnir. Separately, Ireland took Euro 400 billion of contingent liabilities onto the national balance sheet, when it stood behind the deposits and debts of its six large banks and building societies. You have to wonder what Mr Noyer regards as dramatic.
倒霉的施泰因布吕克先生却并不孤单：即使法国央行理事Christian Noyer,宣布“我们面前没有什么悲剧”，但欧洲银行还是以令人晕眩的速度进入崩塌状态。Hypo Real Estate只是三天内欧洲七国进行救助的五家银行之一。何比卢三国共同救助了大型银行保险服务商——Fortis；英国抵押贷款供应商Bradford & Bingley变身国有化；法比卢又救助了比利时德克夏银行；冰岛救助了格里特利尔银行。除此以外，爱尔兰使用国家资产承担了价值4000亿欧元的或有性 负债，当然这是因为六家大银行以及房屋社团提供了存款和债务作为后盾。至此，人们不得不思考一下Noyer先生所谓的悲剧性到底指什么。
By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts do—and that is saying quite something, given the past week’s forced sale of Washington Mutual, America’s biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly Euro1.40 for each Euro1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
从某些方面看来，欧洲银行看起来比他们的美国同行要脆弱得多：鉴于在过去的一周里，全美最大的互助储蓄银行华互以及第四大商业银行瓦霍维亚银行先后被强行 拍卖，这很说明问题。在美国除华尔街以外的其它银行中，每一美元的存款被放贷支出96美分；欧洲中央银行基于1欧元的储蓄却几乎贷出了1.4欧元，因此他 们不得不从金融市场投资者那里借入存贷差额部分，而后者目前却是格外的不自信。包括英国、爱尔兰和西班牙在内的欧洲银行都遭受房市萧条的影响；同时还必须 （满足）对抗花费数十亿购买的美国不良资产和自己缓慢发展的经济。
Western Europe is not the limit of this: the panic has also struck banks in Hong Kong, Russia and now India. And it is not just the geographical breadth of this crisis that is alarming, but also its economic depth. Because it is rooted in the money markets (see article and article), it will feed through to businesses and households in every economy it hits.
如此的境况不仅限于西欧：包括香港、俄罗斯和印度等国都陷入恐慌中。此次危机所预警的并不仅仅是地域的宽度，还包含经济层面的深度。由于根源于金融市场，它必将直接影响到所有受打击经济中的企业和家庭。
Take a deep breath
深吸一口气，做好准备
Most of the time nobody notices the credit flowing through the lungs of the economy, any more than people notice the air they breathe. But everyone knows when credit stops circulating freely through markets to banks, businesses and consumers. For almost a year the markets had worried about banks’ liquidity and solvency. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers last month, amid confusion about whom the state would save and on what terms, they panicked. The markets for three-, six- and 12-month paper are shut, so banks must borrow even more money overnight than usual.
大多数时间没有人会留意到流通在经济中的信贷，一如没有什么人会留意他们呼吸的空气；但是当信贷无法自由的通过市场循环到银行、企业和消费者的时候，每个 人都觉察到了问题。在过去几乎一年的时间里，市场一直为银行的流动性和清偿能力而忧虑。上个月雷曼兄弟倒下后，由于对政府会以什么样的条件救助什么样的银 行充满困惑，市场完全恐慌了。于是季度、半年和一年期的票据市场完全关闭了，这就意味着银行必须在短时间内比以往筹集到更多的现金。
Banks used to borrow from each other at about 0.08 percentage points above official rates; on September 30th they paid more than four percentage points more. In one auction to get dollar funds overnight from the European Central Bank, banks were prepared to pay interest of 11%, five times the pre-crisis rate. Astonishingly, rates scaled these extremes even as the Federal Reserve promised $620 billion of extra funding.
银行间过去以高于（低于）官 方利率十万分之八的利率进行同业拆借；而9月30日他们却要多付百分之四。一次为了在短时间内从欧洲央行得到美元基金进行的竞拍中，银行甚至准备以11% 的利率出价，这相当于危机前5倍的价格。令人震惊的是，在联储承诺6200亿美元的额外基金后，利率仍然朝着这种极端攀升。
Bankers have always earned their crust by committing money for long periods and financing that with short-term deposits and borrowing. Today, that model has warped into self-parody: many of the banks’ assets are unsellable even as they have to return to the market each day to ask for lenders to vote on their survival. No wonder they are hoarding cash.
银行通常用短期储蓄和借贷来满足资金需求，并通过这种运作形成积累；如今这种模式已经扭曲成了滑稽的自我模仿：很多银行资产都没有销路，正如他们每天都必须回到市场上央求贷款者帮助他们存活下去。无疑他们需要储蓄现金。
This is why those politicians who set the interests of Main Street against those of Wall Street are so wrong. Sooner or later the money markets affect every business. Companies face higher interest charges and the fear that they may one day lose access to bank loans altogether. So they, too, hoard cash, cancelling acquisitions and investments, in order to pay down debt. Managers delay new products, leave factories unbuilt, pull the plug on loss-making divisions, and cut costs and jobs. Carmakers and other manufacturers will no longer extend credit (see article) and loans will become elusive and expensive. Consumers will suffer. Unemployment will rise. Even if the credit markets work well, the rich economies will slow as the asset-price bubble pops. If credit is choked off, that slowdown could turn into a deep recession.
这就是那些政客为了小企业利益而牺牲大公司想法的错误所在：金融市场早晚会影响到所有的企业。那些承受高利率成本的公司也惧怕某天他们会无法从银行得到贷款，于是他们也开始储备现金，为了减少负债甚至取消了收购和投资；管理层 停止新品推出，暂缓工厂扩建，关闭不盈利机构，削减成本以及进行裁员；汽车及其它制造商不再延长消费信用，贷款销售将变得难得并且昂贵；最终受罪的是消费 者，失业率必将上升。即使信贷市场运转正常，发达国家的经济发展也会由于资产价格泡沫的破裂而放缓；如果信贷市场阻塞，那么经济的放缓将会发展成深度经济 萧条。
Financial markets need governments to set rules for them; and when markets fail, governments are often best placed to get them going again. That’s pragmatism, not socialism. Helping bankers is not an end in itself. If the government could save the credit markets without bailing out the bankers, it should do so. But it cannot. Main Street needs Wall Street; and both need Washington. Politicians—and President George Bush is the most culpable among them (see article)—have failed to explain this.
金融市场需要政府来设定规则；当市场失败的时候，政府常常已经准备好了使之继续前行：这是使用主义，不是社会主义。对银行的救助不是最终目的，如果政府不 救助银行就能挽救信贷市场，那么他应该这样做；但是他却无法实现这个目的。小企业也需要大公司，他们都需要政府。政客们没有阐明这一点，而布什总统是他们 中最应受到责备的。
Governments need not just to communicate, but also to co-ordinate. Past banking crises show that late, piecemeal rescues cost more and work less well. Ad hoc mergers work for a while, but demands for help tend to recur. Inconsistency sows uncertainty. Cross-border banking can make one country’s policies awkward for the neighbours: the Irish government’s guarantee of all deposits threatens to suck in money from poorly protected British banks. France’s suggestion on October 1st that Europe’s governments should work together was a good one; Germany’s rejection of it was wrong.
政府需要做的不仅仅是沟通，还有协调。过往的银行危机证明了迟到而零散的救助不仅成本更高，而且效果更差。临时整合短时间内有效，但是需要持续才能有效。矛盾必然传播不确定性结果。跨国银行可以让一国政策威胁到邻国：爱尔兰政府通过从保护措施少的可怜的英国银行吸纳现金来确保自己的存款不受威胁；法国在10月1日建议欧盟各国政府应该齐心协力，而德国政府对此表示出的反对是不正确的。
Central banks have co-ordinated their liquidity operations. Now that oil prices have plunged and worries about inflation are receding, interest-rate cuts are possible. They would be more powerful if co-ordinated. But it is not only central banks that need to combine. Whatever America’s Congress does, governments should work together on principles to stabilise and recapitalise banks—not just to stem panic but also to save money. Even if, as the Europeans claim, the crisis was made in America, it now belongs to everyone.
央行已经协调他们的流动性部门。目前油价下跌，通胀的 忧虑也有所减轻，削减利率的可能性加大。相互协调的能量会更大，但需要团结在一起的不光是央行。不管美国国会的意思如何，政府都应该以稳定和向银行注资为 原则而共同努力，不光为了消除恐慌，更是为了拯救经济。即使像欧洲人宣称的那样，危机源于美国，但现在已经是每一个人的问题了。
命悬一线的世界
Oct 2nd 2008
From The Economist print edition
Whatever happens in Congress, the crisis is now global; that means governments must work together
无论美国会意思如何，此次危机已经是演变为全球性的了；这就意味着各国政府必须协同作战。
AMERICA’S Congress is not used to being second-guessed. But as lawmakers wrestled in the Capitol, world stockmarkets have been giving real-time odds on the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out becoming law. After the plan’s thrashing by the House of Representatives on September 29th, spurred on by voters’ loathing of “casino capitalism”, investors panicked. Yet as The Economist went to press, they were optimistic that, after winning the Senate’s approval on October 1st, the plan would pass.
美国国会还没有习惯被猜来猜去（不曾被猜测过），但随着法律制定者们在国会大厦中的角力，全球股市都在时时关注布什政府7000亿美元救助法案的进程。9月29日救助计划因选民们对“赌场资本主义”的痛恨而遭到众院拒绝，这个消息让投资者陷入一片恐慌之中。不过在经济学家付印的时候他们还是很乐观的，因为他们在10月1日赢得了参院的批准，该方案应该会通过。
Even if it does, that should not be a cause for optimism. Look beyond the stockmarkets, especially at the seized-up money markets, and there is little to see except bank failures, emergency rescues and high anxiety in the credit markets. These forces are drawing the financial system closer to disaster and the rich world to the edge of a nasty recession (see article). The bail-out package should mitigate the problems, but it will not avert them.
即使方案（放案）通过了，人们也没有理由变得乐观：如果目光放远些，不单单盯着股市、特别是已然停顿的货币市场，那么就除了银行倒闭、紧急救助和充斥焦虑的信贷市场外，就别奢望能看到别的景象了。这些力量正将金融系统拖向灾难，也正将发达国家拽向凶残的经济萧条边缘。整体救助计划（异化）应该可以缓解问题，但却无法完全避免。
The crisis is spreading in two directions—across the Atlantic to Europe, and out of the financial markets into the real economy. Governments have been dealing with it disaster by disaster. They have struggled to gain control not just because of the speed of contagion but also because policymakers, and the public they serve, have failed fully to grasp the breadth and depth of the crisis.
危机向着两个方向展开：地缘上越过大西洋到达欧洲，范围上突破金融市场进入实体经济领域。政府一直应对这接二连三的灾难，他们努力进行控制的原因不仅是因为危机蔓延的速度，还因为政府所服务的决策者和公众完全没有领会到此次危机的深度和广度。
What’s the Icelandic for “domino”?
冰岛人也明白骨牌效应
Step forward, Peer Steinbrück, Germany’s finance minister, who rashly declared on September 25th that America was “the source…and the focus of the crisis”, before heralding the end of its role as the financial superpower. Within days, the focus shifted and Mr Steinbrück and his officials were obliged to arrange a Euro35 billion ($51 billion) loan from German banks and the German government to save Hypo Real Estate, the country’s second-biggest property lender.
德国财长施泰因布吕克在9月25日站出来鲁莽的宣称美国在结束超级金融大国地位之前一直是“危机的源泉和中心”。而数日内该中心旋即发生了转移，施泰恩布 吕克先生和他的同僚们从德国银行和德国政府强行安排了350亿欧元（约合510亿美元），用以拯救Hypo Real Estate这个全国第二大的抵押贷款银行。
The hapless Mr Steinbrück is not alone. European banks were collapsing at a dizzying pace even as Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, declared that “there is no drama in front of us.” Hypo Real Estate was just one of five banks in seven European countries bailed out in three days. Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands carved up Fortis, a big bancassurer; Britain nationalised Bradford & Bingley; Belgium, France and Luxembourg saved Dexia; and Iceland rescued Glitnir. Separately, Ireland took Euro 400 billion of contingent liabilities onto the national balance sheet, when it stood behind the deposits and debts of its six large banks and building societies. You have to wonder what Mr Noyer regards as dramatic.
倒霉的施泰因布吕克先生却并不孤单：即使法国央行理事Christian Noyer,宣布“我们面前没有什么悲剧”，但欧洲银行还是以令人晕眩的速度进入崩塌状态。Hypo Real Estate只是三天内欧洲七国进行救助的五家银行之一。何比卢三国共同救助了大型银行保险服务商——Fortis；英国抵押贷款供应商Bradford & Bingley变身国有化；法比卢又救助了比利时德克夏银行；冰岛救助了格里特利尔银行。除此以外，爱尔兰使用国家资产承担了价值4000亿欧元的或有性 负债，当然这是因为六家大银行以及房屋社团提供了存款和债务作为后盾。至此，人们不得不思考一下Noyer先生所谓的悲剧性到底指什么。
By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts do—and that is saying quite something, given the past week’s forced sale of Washington Mutual, America’s biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly Euro1.40 for each Euro1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
从某些方面看来，欧洲银行看起来比他们的美国同行要脆弱得多：鉴于在过去的一周里，全美最大的互助储蓄银行华互以及第四大商业银行瓦霍维亚银行先后被强行 拍卖，这很说明问题。在美国除华尔街以外的其它银行中，每一美元的存款被放贷支出96美分；欧洲中央银行基于1欧元的储蓄却几乎贷出了1.4欧元，因此他 们不得不从金融市场投资者那里借入存贷差额部分，而后者目前却是格外的不自信。包括英国、爱尔兰和西班牙在内的欧洲银行都遭受房市萧条的影响；同时还必须 （满足）对抗花费数十亿购买的美国不良资产和自己缓慢发展的经济。
Western Europe is not the limit of this: the panic has also struck banks in Hong Kong, Russia and now India. And it is not just the geographical breadth of this crisis that is alarming, but also its economic depth. Because it is rooted in the money markets (see article and article), it will feed through to businesses and households in every economy it hits.
如此的境况不仅限于西欧：包括香港、俄罗斯和印度等国都陷入恐慌中。此次危机所预警的并不仅仅是地域的宽度，还包含经济层面的深度。由于根源于金融市场，它必将直接影响到所有受打击经济中的企业和家庭。
Take a deep breath
深吸一口气，做好准备
Most of the time nobody notices the credit flowing through the lungs of the economy, any more than people notice the air they breathe. But everyone knows when credit stops circulating freely through markets to banks, businesses and consumers. For almost a year the markets had worried about banks’ liquidity and solvency. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers last month, amid confusion about whom the state would save and on what terms, they panicked. The markets for three-, six- and 12-month paper are shut, so banks must borrow even more money overnight than usual.
大多数时间没有人会留意到流通在经济中的信贷，一如没有什么人会留意他们呼吸的空气；但是当信贷无法自由的通过市场循环到银行、企业和消费者的时候，每个 人都觉察到了问题。在过去几乎一年的时间里，市场一直为银行的流动性和清偿能力而忧虑。上个月雷曼兄弟倒下后，由于对政府会以什么样的条件救助什么样的银 行充满困惑，市场完全恐慌了。于是季度、半年和一年期的票据市场完全关闭了，这就意味着银行必须在短时间内比以往筹集到更多的现金。
Banks used to borrow from each other at about 0.08 percentage points above official rates; on September 30th they paid more than four percentage points more. In one auction to get dollar funds overnight from the European Central Bank, banks were prepared to pay interest of 11%, five times the pre-crisis rate. Astonishingly, rates scaled these extremes even as the Federal Reserve promised $620 billion of extra funding.
银行间过去以高于（低于）官 方利率十万分之八的利率进行同业拆借；而9月30日他们却要多付百分之四。一次为了在短时间内从欧洲央行得到美元基金进行的竞拍中，银行甚至准备以11% 的利率出价，这相当于危机前5倍的价格。令人震惊的是，在联储承诺6200亿美元的额外基金后，利率仍然朝着这种极端攀升。
Bankers have always earned their crust by committing money for long periods and financing that with short-term deposits and borrowing. Today, that model has warped into self-parody: many of the banks’ assets are unsellable even as they have to return to the market each day to ask for lenders to vote on their survival. No wonder they are hoarding cash.
银行通常用短期储蓄和借贷来满足资金需求，并通过这种运作形成积累；如今这种模式已经扭曲成了滑稽的自我模仿：很多银行资产都没有销路，正如他们每天都必须回到市场上央求贷款者帮助他们存活下去。无疑他们需要储蓄现金。
This is why those politicians who set the interests of Main Street against those of Wall Street are so wrong. Sooner or later the money markets affect every business. Companies face higher interest charges and the fear that they may one day lose access to bank loans altogether. So they, too, hoard cash, cancelling acquisitions and investments, in order to pay down debt. Managers delay new products, leave factories unbuilt, pull the plug on loss-making divisions, and cut costs and jobs. Carmakers and other manufacturers will no longer extend credit (see article) and loans will become elusive and expensive. Consumers will suffer. Unemployment will rise. Even if the credit markets work well, the rich economies will slow as the asset-price bubble pops. If credit is choked off, that slowdown could turn into a deep recession.
这就是那些政客为了小企业利益而牺牲大公司想法的错误所在：金融市场早晚会影响到所有的企业。那些承受高利率成本的公司也惧怕某天他们会无法从银行得到贷款，于是他们也开始储备现金，为了减少负债甚至取消了收购和投资；管理层 停止新品推出，暂缓工厂扩建，关闭不盈利机构，削减成本以及进行裁员；汽车及其它制造商不再延长消费信用，贷款销售将变得难得并且昂贵；最终受罪的是消费 者，失业率必将上升。即使信贷市场运转正常，发达国家的经济发展也会由于资产价格泡沫的破裂而放缓；如果信贷市场阻塞，那么经济的放缓将会发展成深度经济 萧条。
Financial markets need governments to set rules for them; and when markets fail, governments are often best placed to get them going again. That’s pragmatism, not socialism. Helping bankers is not an end in itself. If the government could save the credit markets without bailing out the bankers, it should do so. But it cannot. Main Street needs Wall Street; and both need Washington. Politicians—and President George Bush is the most culpable among them (see article)—have failed to explain this.
金融市场需要政府来设定规则；当市场失败的时候，政府常常已经准备好了使之继续前行：这是使用主义，不是社会主义。对银行的救助不是最终目的，如果政府不 救助银行就能挽救信贷市场，那么他应该这样做；但是他却无法实现这个目的。小企业也需要大公司，他们都需要政府。政客们没有阐明这一点，而布什总统是他们 中最应受到责备的。
Governments need not just to communicate, but also to co-ordinate. Past banking crises show that late, piecemeal rescues cost more and work less well. Ad hoc mergers work for a while, but demands for help tend to recur. Inconsistency sows uncertainty. Cross-border banking can make one country’s policies awkward for the neighbours: the Irish government’s guarantee of all deposits threatens to suck in money from poorly protected British banks. France’s suggestion on October 1st that Europe’s governments should work together was a good one; Germany’s rejection of it was wrong.
政府需要做的不仅仅是沟通，还有协调。过往的银行危机证明了迟到而零散的救助不仅成本更高，而且效果更差。临时整合短时间内有效，但是需要持续才能有效。矛盾必然传播不确定性结果。跨国银行可以让一国政策威胁到邻国：爱尔兰政府通过从保护措施少的可怜的英国银行吸纳现金来确保自己的存款不受威胁；法国在10月1日建议欧盟各国政府应该齐心协力，而德国政府对此表示出的反对是不正确的。
Central banks have co-ordinated their liquidity operations. Now that oil prices have plunged and worries about inflation are receding, interest-rate cuts are possible. They would be more powerful if co-ordinated. But it is not only central banks that need to combine. Whatever America’s Congress does, governments should work together on principles to stabilise and recapitalise banks—not just to stem panic but also to save money. Even if, as the Europeans claim, the crisis was made in America, it now belongs to everyone.
央行已经协调他们的流动性部门。目前油价下跌，通胀的 忧虑也有所减轻，削减利率的可能性加大。相互协调的能量会更大，但需要团结在一起的不光是央行。不管美国国会的意思如何，政府都应该以稳定和向银行注资为 原则而共同努力，不光为了消除恐慌，更是为了拯救经济。即使像欧洲人宣称的那样，危机源于美国，但现在已经是每一个人的问题了。
初始化编辑器...
到底了
ADVERTISEMENT
HOT DEALS
HUNDA iPhone车载充电器：现在仅需$12.59（原价：$13.99） - 超快充电，配备5FT螺旋闪电数据线
独家72%折扣BSOD蘑菇灯：复古玻璃桌面照明
Under Armour 儿童服装特卖 额外30%折扣
SHEIN 手机壳促销，低至 $1.53 起，享受免邮！
Revive Skincare促销 - 购物赠品
Hanna Andersson 秋季大促销 - 低至五折优惠，满$100免运费
COS全场商品享受8折优惠
Madewell 会员专享活动，限时25％折扣
Dermstore Get Ready With Me 套装！¥100（价值¥450+）
Farfetch T恤特卖 - 享受高达80%折扣，满$200免运费
冬季舒适加倍！女性连帽毛茸茸开襟外套 - 现在立省25%
Make Up For Ever Friends & Family 全场25折 + 价值$45的五件套礼物
Chinese Title: Crocs 在 Kids Foot Locker 节省高达30%
ADVERTISEMENT