为什么说＂如果按历史规律，Trump早就退选了＂？

2011年的时候，Herman Cain直到10月25号还领先所有共和党的选手呢。

[url=http://www.cbsnews.com/news/herman-cain-tops-mitt-romney-in-latest-cbs-nyt-poll/]http://www.cbsnews.com/news/herman-cain-tops-mitt-romney-in-latest-cbs-nyt-poll/[/url]
[url=http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/26/fox-news-poll-gop-primary-voters-get-on-cain-train/]http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/26/fox-news-poll-gop-primary-voters-get-on-cain-train/[/url]

说老莫威力的同时, 请不要miss other other side of the coin, 比如你提到的FL：In the past six presidential elections, Florida voters, casting more than 41 million votes, sided with Democrats three times and Republicans three times. Crunching the numbers, Schale found the result was so close – 47.8 percent to 47.5 percent – a recount would have been required if it was one election.

Blacks and Hispanics are increasingly voting Democratic and whites are increasingly trending Republican, the numbers show. Over the long term, that represents a shrinking base for the Republican Party.

But for 2016, declines in support among white voters is a major problem for Democrats, said Florida Atlantic University political scientist Kevin Wagner.

"A lot of the focus is on the fact that Republicans have done — especially in presidential years — very poorly among minority groups, especially blacks and Hispanics," Wagner said. "Sometimes the analysis misses the other side of that coin: that Democrats are doing increasingly poorly with white Americans, especially working-class white Americans."

还有这次Dem的候选人不是black, 黑人里的得票率不会那么高。
再说FL的hispanics好多是古巴的，利益和诉求和老莫也不尽相同。现在就说FL归dem，结论下的过早了。

Trump和Fiorina和解了？

HOUSE HOLD 五万？？？？？分水岭到底在什么地方啊

~~~~~~~~
什么分水岭？

说实话， 我总觉得TRUMP肚子里没有计划。 他每次回答问题都一样的。。。

consistent不容易被抓住把柄。移民他不是出了具体计划了，一个一个来呗。这样他每出一个计划，其他候选人和媒体都狂讨论这个问题一通。按照这个pace, 差不多到明年初正好把主要话题都cover了。

巴马当年靠change, hope都能搞定，选民更多是凭着感觉走。

这个阶段论输赢太早。不过我同意你对川普的评价，他还有很长的路要走。他这次竞选暴光很多社会问题，蛮有价值的