Harris 未必赢Iowa,这个poll还有Kennedy的变数,但就算两者打平,也个趋势也很值得考虑。
支持Kennedy的也有很多女性选民,所以不会是打平的。
Harris 未必赢Iowa,这个poll还有Kennedy的变数,但就算两者打平,也个趋势也很值得考虑。
是的,主要参考价值是中西部老白男、老白女的变化,结合中期选举结果,可能blue wall民主党的领先还蛮大的,并不像想象中的那样toss up。甚至可能这次战场州就不是那几个。
这个poll不是出口民调,跟早投数据没法结合分析
我是两个数据结合起来一起看的。这个民调是调查的所有人,而早投数据是现在已经投票过的人的数据。联系起来看我觉得哈里斯拿下Iowa的可能性挺大的。
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Harris leads in Ann Selzer's final Iowa poll by 3 points. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Selzer's previous poll in September showed Turmp up by 4 points, meaning a flip of 7 points. In 2020 Selzer was the outlier saying that Trump was up 7% when other pollsters were saying it was tied or even showed Biden leading. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2%.
Political junkies were keeping their eyes peeled for this poll, saying that if Trump was up anywhere from 1-4% it would be a Harris over-performance.
Results of the poll:
Harris 47%
Trump 44%
Kennedy 3%
Not sure 3%
Don't want to say 2%
Someone else 1%
Most shockingly with this poll, Harris leads senior voters. Senior men prefer Harris by 47% to 45%, while senior women prefer Harris by a whopping 2-1 margin of 63% to 28%. Independent women choose Harris by a 28 point margin while Trump has a smaller majority with Independent men with a 10 point margin.
Harris has 97% of the Democratic vote share, 0% for Trump. While Trump has only 89% of the Republican vote share while Harris has 5% of Republicans defecting to her.
Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump).
Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%).
Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%.
Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.
公平的说,换个体面一点的候选人,比如Pence,GOP躺赢。
maga已经自成一派,疯狂了。传统的共和党人都抛弃它们了。但是没有想到居然那么多华人川粉不离不弃,
回复 24楼 andyboy 的帖子
maga已经自成一派,疯狂了。传统的共和党人都抛弃它们了。但是没有想到居然那么多华人川粉不离不弃,
他们哪里是对川普不离不弃啊,他们是因为讨厌美国所以选川普啊!
18-24这么小的区别是最让人心寒的部分,social media上的alpha bros对young men的影响太大了。
做事情要设身处地替别人想。拜登任期通胀很高,特别是房价飙升,再加上利率,18-24,甚至25-34年龄段的受影响是巨大的,极其愤怒不满是有原因的。我们已经上车的甚至拿着几套房子的当然不在乎。老川要不是太傻,整天扯什么50%关税,取消收入税用关税替代这些傻逼政策,选他的人更多(为什么哈里斯在大学程度以上支持率高,老川毁灭性的经济政策主张是很大原因)。拜登执政4年虽然大方向对,毕竟很多人受影响经济状况比4年前差多了。买不了房就足够理由投老川,虽然老川上任也解决不了问题,但是人很多时候不是理性的。
做事情要设身处地替别人想。拜登任期通胀很高,特别是房价飙升,再加上利率,18-24,甚至25-34年龄段的受影响是巨大的,极其愤怒不满是有原因的。我们已经上车的甚至拿着几套房子的当然不在乎。老川要不是太傻,整天扯什么50%关税,取消收入税用关税替代这些傻逼政策,选他的人更多(为什么哈里斯在大学程度以上支持率高,老川毁灭性的经济政策主张是很大原因)。拜登执政4年虽然大方向对,毕竟很多人受影响经济状况比4年前差多了。买不了房就足够理由投老川,虽然老川上任也解决不了问题,但是人很多时候不是理性的。
我也在想这个房子的问题。马斯克不是在搞那种小房子,这种不知道有没有可能搞成?不然是一个供起问题,通胀下,更买不起房,就算贺给政策给首套房。
New York Times Siena College final poll:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html
AZ 确实很难赢(也是川普唯一领先的州),其它都有一拼。NC和NV似乎比蓝墙还乐观一点,我个人不太同意,我觉得MI和WI是最容易的,NC NV和PA难度相当。
到底了
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