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Huaren
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注册时间2024-09-15

Everglades

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2024-11-03 07:32:05

gemeaux1 发表于 2024-11-03 07:17

Harris 未必赢Iowa,这个poll还有Kennedy的变数,但就算两者打平,也个趋势也很值得考虑。


支持Kennedy的也有很多女性选民,所以不会是打平的。

Huaren
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Mediterranean

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2024-11-03 07:32:30

gemeaux1 发表于 2024-11-03 07:17

Harris 未必赢Iowa,这个poll还有Kennedy的变数,但就算两者打平,也个趋势也很值得考虑。


是的,主要参考价值是中西部老白男、老白女的变化,结合中期选举结果,可能blue wall民主党的领先还蛮大的,并不像想象中的那样toss up。甚至可能这次战场州就不是那几个。

Huaren
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注册时间2012-01-13

flyinthewind2012

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2024-11-03 07:32:38

Mediterranean 发表于 2024-11-03 07:28

这个poll不是出口民调,跟早投数据没法结合分析


我是两个数据结合起来一起看的。这个民调是调查的所有人,而早投数据是现在已经投票过的人的数据。联系起来看我觉得哈里斯拿下Iowa的可能性挺大的。

Huaren
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andyboy

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2024-11-03 07:33:15

小蚕豆花 发表于 2024-11-03 01:42

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Harris leads in Ann Selzer's final Iowa poll by 3 points. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Selzer's previous poll in September showed Turmp up by 4 points, meaning a flip of 7 points. In 2020 Selzer was the outlier saying that Trump was up 7% when other pollsters were saying it was tied or even showed Biden leading. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2%.

Political junkies were keeping their eyes peeled for this poll, saying that if Trump was up anywhere from 1-4% it would be a Harris over-performance.

Results of the poll:

Harris 47%

Trump 44%

Kennedy 3%

Not sure 3%

Don't want to say 2%

Someone else 1%

Most shockingly with this poll, Harris leads senior voters. Senior men prefer Harris by 47% to 45%, while senior women prefer Harris by a whopping 2-1 margin of 63% to 28%. Independent women choose Harris by a 28 point margin while Trump has a smaller majority with Independent men with a 10 point margin.

Harris has 97% of the Democratic vote share, 0% for Trump. While Trump has only 89% of the Republican vote share while Harris has 5% of Republicans defecting to her.


Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump).

Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%). 

Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%.

Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.



公平的说,换个体面一点的候选人,比如Pence,GOP躺赢。

Huaren
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Anna20000

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2024-11-03 07:41:13

回复 24楼 andyboy 的帖子

maga已经自成一派,疯狂了。传统的共和党人都抛弃它们了。但是没有想到居然那么多华人川粉不离不弃,

Huaren
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flyinthewind2012

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2024-11-03 07:47:49

Anna20000 发表于 2024-11-03 07:41
回复 24楼 andyboy 的帖子

maga已经自成一派,疯狂了。传统的共和党人都抛弃它们了。但是没有想到居然那么多华人川粉不离不弃,


他们哪里是对川普不离不弃啊,他们是因为讨厌美国所以选川普啊!

Huaren
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注册时间2007-04-07

起舞弄清影

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2024-11-03 08:16:22

AlwaysHopeful 发表于 2024-11-03 05:26

18-24这么小的区别是最让人心寒的部分,social media上的alpha bros对young men的影响太大了。


做事情要设身处地替别人想。拜登任期通胀很高,特别是房价飙升,再加上利率,18-24,甚至25-34年龄段的受影响是巨大的,极其愤怒不满是有原因的。我们已经上车的甚至拿着几套房子的当然不在乎。老川要不是太傻,整天扯什么50%关税,取消收入税用关税替代这些傻逼政策,选他的人更多(为什么哈里斯在大学程度以上支持率高,老川毁灭性的经济政策主张是很大原因)。拜登执政4年虽然大方向对,毕竟很多人受影响经济状况比4年前差多了。买不了房就足够理由投老川,虽然老川上任也解决不了问题,但是人很多时候不是理性的。

Huaren
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Nianyurain

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2024-11-03 08:21:02

还分析什么呀, 周二出结果了!
Huaren
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thymesu

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2024-11-03 08:36:03

起舞弄清影 发表于 2024-11-03 08:16

做事情要设身处地替别人想。拜登任期通胀很高,特别是房价飙升,再加上利率,18-24,甚至25-34年龄段的受影响是巨大的,极其愤怒不满是有原因的。我们已经上车的甚至拿着几套房子的当然不在乎。老川要不是太傻,整天扯什么50%关税,取消收入税用关税替代这些傻逼政策,选他的人更多(为什么哈里斯在大学程度以上支持率高,老川毁灭性的经济政策主张是很大原因)。拜登执政4年虽然大方向对,毕竟很多人受影响经济状况比4年前差多了。买不了房就足够理由投老川,虽然老川上任也解决不了问题,但是人很多时候不是理性的。


我也在想这个房子的问题。马斯克不是在搞那种小房子,这种不知道有没有可能搞成?不然是一个供起问题,通胀下,更买不起房,就算贺给政策给首套房。

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Huaren
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注册时间2022-12-21

Mediterranean

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2024-11-03 08:42:21

New York Times Siena College final poll:


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html


AZ 确实很难赢(也是川普唯一领先的州),其它都有一拼。NC和NV似乎比蓝墙还乐观一点,我个人不太同意,我觉得MI和WI是最容易的,NC NV和PA难度相当。

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