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这篇文章写得很好,尤其是其中的对于西方政治风向的分析。
Britain’s Vote To Leave
[url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-friedman/britains-vote-to-leave_b_10673784.html]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-friedman/britains-vote-to-leave_b_10673784.html[/url]
1. Obviously they did not think that Europe would throw up trade barriers against Britain. The U.K. is Germany’s third most important export target; The last thing Germany wants is a trade war with Britain.
2. The second reason had to do with a global trend toward nationalism. There is a sense that the multinational financial, trade and defense organizations created after World War II have ceased to function effectively.
3. Many of the voters saw no benefit to themselves in the success of the financial industry or its location in London. While in Britain, the financial industry would have disproportionate influence, that would harm the voters.
4. in many ways this was a three-way struggle, with the two established parties wanting to remain in the EU and a third faction, drawn from both parties, opposing it. People in this third group saw both establishment parties as hostile to their interests.The degree to which this was a vote that was directed against the British elite is vital to understand. Politicians, business leaders and intellectuals were all seen as having lost their right to control the system. The elites had contempt for their values - for their nationalism and their interests.
5.This is not a British phenomenon by any means. It is something that is sweeping Europe and China. It is also present in the United States, in the figure of Donald Trump whose entire strategy is to attack both the Democratic and Republican leadership and the elite who have contempt for the nationalism and moral principles of those beneath them. It is a general process the West is undergoing, and it came to London yesterday.
Britain’s Vote To Leave
[url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-friedman/britains-vote-to-leave_b_10673784.html]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-friedman/britains-vote-to-leave_b_10673784.html[/url]
1. Obviously they did not think that Europe would throw up trade barriers against Britain. The U.K. is Germany’s third most important export target; The last thing Germany wants is a trade war with Britain.
2. The second reason had to do with a global trend toward nationalism. There is a sense that the multinational financial, trade and defense organizations created after World War II have ceased to function effectively.
3. Many of the voters saw no benefit to themselves in the success of the financial industry or its location in London. While in Britain, the financial industry would have disproportionate influence, that would harm the voters.
4. in many ways this was a three-way struggle, with the two established parties wanting to remain in the EU and a third faction, drawn from both parties, opposing it. People in this third group saw both establishment parties as hostile to their interests.The degree to which this was a vote that was directed against the British elite is vital to understand. Politicians, business leaders and intellectuals were all seen as having lost their right to control the system. The elites had contempt for their values - for their nationalism and their interests.
5.This is not a British phenomenon by any means. It is something that is sweeping Europe and China. It is also present in the United States, in the figure of Donald Trump whose entire strategy is to attack both the Democratic and Republican leadership and the elite who have contempt for the nationalism and moral principles of those beneath them. It is a general process the West is undergoing, and it came to London yesterday.
《今日美国》24日报导,英国脱欧派的一项诉求是:“人民要拿回国家控制权”,与今年美国大选共和党准提名人川普的“让美国再强大”主张,有异曲同工之妙。
川普24日在苏格兰出席高尔夫球度假村开幕活动,对于脱欧派“人民要拿回国家控制权”的诉求,成功掳获英国民心,他表示:“在英国发生的事,也会发生在美国。”
英国脱欧有助川普选情的迹象是:
1.由英国公投结果显示,在挣扎于经济负面冲击的选民心中,移民题和自由贸易占有极大的分量,而在今年美国总统大选中,川普也是打出反对非法移民及自由贸易的主张。
2.由过去的历史观之,英国政坛发生的事情,似乎是美国政坛的预兆,例如近40年前,英国保守党领袖撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)击败工党,成为英国首位女首相,隔年代表共和党竞选总统的里根,击败民主党赢得大选。这种历史轨迹或在今年美国大选再次应验。
3.民族主义再度成为全球政治的主要力量,预示主张“让美国再强大”的川普或会胜出。
4.奥巴马总统及其同党准提名人希拉里都主张英国留欧,错判英国人民的心意,他们是否也会将失去美国的民心?
川普24日在苏格兰出席高尔夫球度假村开幕活动,对于脱欧派“人民要拿回国家控制权”的诉求,成功掳获英国民心,他表示:“在英国发生的事,也会发生在美国。”
英国脱欧有助川普选情的迹象是:
1.由英国公投结果显示,在挣扎于经济负面冲击的选民心中,移民题和自由贸易占有极大的分量,而在今年美国总统大选中,川普也是打出反对非法移民及自由贸易的主张。
2.由过去的历史观之,英国政坛发生的事情,似乎是美国政坛的预兆,例如近40年前,英国保守党领袖撒切尔夫人(Margaret Thatcher)击败工党,成为英国首位女首相,隔年代表共和党竞选总统的里根,击败民主党赢得大选。这种历史轨迹或在今年美国大选再次应验。
3.民族主义再度成为全球政治的主要力量,预示主张“让美国再强大”的川普或会胜出。
4.奥巴马总统及其同党准提名人希拉里都主张英国留欧,错判英国人民的心意,他们是否也会将失去美国的民心?
BBC报道称,尽管获得超过10万签名,就可以在英国议会获得辩论,但是并没有就此采取行动的法律义务。此外,投票规则事先已经明确,如果你不幸站在了失败的一方,就不能随便引入新的规则来反悔。
而从最新民调来看,真正反悔的人也仅占少数。COMRES为Sunday Mirror和Sunday People进行的民调结果显示,此前投票支持退欧的人仅有1%表示后悔,支持二次公投的人也仅有39%。
而从最新民调来看,真正反悔的人也仅占少数。COMRES为Sunday Mirror和Sunday People进行的民调结果显示,此前投票支持退欧的人仅有1%表示后悔,支持二次公投的人也仅有39%。
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