小蚕豆花
IOWA Harris 领先的细节数据分析
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2024-11-03 01:42:13
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
Harris leads in Ann Selzer's final Iowa poll by 3 points. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Selzer's previous poll in September showed Turmp up by 4 points, meaning a flip of 7 points. In 2020 Selzer was the outlier saying that Trump was up 7% when other pollsters were saying it was tied or even showed Biden leading. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2%.
Political junkies were keeping their eyes peeled for this poll, saying that if Trump was up anywhere from 1-4% it would be a Harris over-performance.
Results of the poll:
Harris 47%
Trump 44%
Kennedy 3%
Not sure 3%
Don't want to say 2%
Someone else 1%
Most shockingly with this poll, Harris leads senior voters. Senior men prefer Harris by 47% to 45%, while senior women prefer Harris by a whopping 2-1 margin of 63% to 28%. Independent women choose Harris by a 28 point margin while Trump has a smaller majority with Independent men with a 10 point margin.
Harris has 97% of the Democratic vote share, 0% for Trump. While Trump has only 89% of the Republican vote share while Harris has 5% of Republicans defecting to her.
Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump).
Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%).
Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%.
Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.
要去投票，去投票！就几天选举结果就出来了，还看什么劳什子民调
Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%.
可以看到川粉的主要组成部分，不少川粉看不懂这句话吧
狂热的神经质的川粉挺多的
这个民调这么准啊？？？
拭目以待
转微博
今天大选最重要的新闻无疑是Ann Selzer Poll结果，这个结果今天像一个重磅炸弹，引起了巨大反响。Ann Selzer是个个体pollster（民调专家），不依赖于机构。她被誉为是美国大选poll中最准确的。她不做全国poll，每次大选前只做一个poll，只做Iowa（爱荷华）一个州的poll。她是PhD，也做过538节目。
为什么Iowa一个poll很重要呢？Iowa曾经是美国最有大选风向标性的摆动州，因此在2024年大选前也是每次大选启动的标志（Iowa caucuses）。2008年她的poll显示Obama将在Iowa caucuses取得压倒性胜利。2012年大选她的poll显示Obama：Romney在Iowa为49: 45%，最终Obama在大选中在Iowa领先了Romney 5.8%。四年后的2016年11月大选前，Ann Selzer Poll显示Trump在Iowa领先7%，最终Trump领先了Hillary 9.4%。她成为了当年唯一一个poll结果正确的pollster。2020年，她的poll显示Trump领先Biden 7%，最终结果Trump领先8.2%。所以，几乎Ann Selzer每次poll都是正确的，都在误差范围内，而且她的结果与全国民意（尤其是中西部民意）有十分好的相关性。
几小时前刚刚公布的Ann Selzer poll显示Harris：Trump为47: 44%，领先了3个百分点。这个消息震动了美国媒体。这是因为，首先，Ann Selzer poll非常精确，因为她是Iowa本地人，她只poll Iowa。第二，已经有几次，Ann Selzer力排众议，推出了一个和他人不同的结果，最终被验证正确。但更重要的是，这说明其他pollster通过polling和建模预测的三个tipping point states（最关键摆动州）PA/WI/MI可能是错的，这可能又成了2016年大选一样，那一年几乎所有pollster都认为FL/OH/IA/NC是tipping point states，导致了Hillary竞选几乎没有去最终真正决定大选的PA/WI/MI竞选。而今天这一结果如果像原来一样可信，那么它说明今年可能是2008年的情况，而其他pollster通过增加R选民比重来建模的方法是错误的（http://t.cn/A6ninzCn）。Iowa是一个白人比例很高的州，占总人口88%。这个poll显示Harris在65岁以上白人女性中领先Trump 40%。这说明了Dobbs Decision（废除堕胎权）这种反常识的事情非常引起普通女性选民反感，包括很多老年保守女性。
18-24这么小的区别是最让人心寒的部分，social media上的alpha bros对young men的影响太大了。
不出奇
早投结果 55%女性 45%男性
跟多次Polls 一样，女性大多投哈里斯
看来这次哈里斯会大赢了。
到底了
HOT DEALS