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Huaren
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注册时间2003-06-16

tuhuan

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【立帖为证】我自己搭的大选预测模型刚刚出结果了,分析了近百个poll的详细数据,结合EV的实时数据,结果可信度超过90%

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2024-11-03 20:13:48

supersleeper 发表于 2024-11-03 17:04

看到了这个报道描述Iowa这个pollster大方法:


**I am not saying the poll is right or wrong**


Of note, Selzer uses random digit dialing and weights very little, with a very simple likely voter model that is "are you going to vote?" No education weight. No partisan/2020.


This is very different from most pollsters these days.


这也是我模型under the hood 试图纠正那些 MAGA灌水poll的原因


对的。我看Selzer访谈的时候也是这么说的,她说她的model 是网上公开的。你可以去找来对比一下

初始化编辑器...

到底了