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Huaren
等级中尉
威望2
贴子2281
魅力2618
注册时间2004-02-27

爱玉

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虽然两年前,就预测到川普胜选,但今天却高兴不起来!

46548

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2024-11-06 14:34:15

Re: 如果没记错,

总统 + 两院 + 最高法院,都归于一尊,是美国有史的这248年以来,唯一的一次大选结果。


还是有过先例的:


  • Between 2001 and 2007, Republicans controlled at certain points all three branches while President George W. Bush occupied the White House. GOP control was interrupted between 2001 and 2003, as the Senate majority flipped to the Democrats as one senator switched his party affiliation, one senator died, and when the 2002 midterm elections shifted control of the upper chamber.


  • From 1961-1969, Democrats controlled all three branches during the administrations of Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson.


  • The 83rd Congress (1953-1955), during the presidency of Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, saw the deaths of nine senators and the resignation of one. These changes shifted the balance of power in the Senate with each new replacement, according to the U.S. Senate website. When Republicans held the Senate majority during those years, all branches of government were under Republican-control, as the party also held the White House and Supreme Court.


  • From 1937-1945, Democrats controlled all three branches of government during the administrations of Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman.


  • And from 1927-1933, Republicans controlled all three branches of the government when Presidents Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover occupied the White House.


出处: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/fact-check/2016/12/01/fact-check-one-party-three-branches-federal-government/94636286/

Huaren
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2024-11-07 00:54:15

B777 发表于 2024-11-06 19:56

你没看懂我的原文。


我说的是:大选日 或 总统就任日,总统+两院+最高院的 状态。


最高法院大法官不是简单的全民票选,但因为,川普在上一任,送了三个大法官进最高法院,加上原有的三个保守派大法官,形成了被“川普党”实质控制的局面。






我上面的例子都算了最高法院的。你看我的原文链接。提的问题是 when did one party control all three branches of the federal government? 有一些年份最高法院没有实际掌权的,比如2009-2011奥巴马执政期间,文章里特别解释了为什么没有算上:“Democrats did control the White House and Congress during those years, but the Supreme Court had at least five Republican justices, even after Democrat Elena Kagan replaced Republican John Paul Stevens in 2010.”

Huaren
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威望2
贴子2281
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爱玉

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2024-11-07 00:56:16

B777 发表于 2024-11-06 21:51

未来半年里,不确定因素很多。


所以,这半年里,码字看心情,也许会零零碎碎地偶尔说几句,但,至少半年内,不会正式认真地,长篇大论地预测了。


只能透露,我心中的两三套预测草稿,可能,与大家看到的,那些大媒体和大V们,说的流行观点,都有较大不同。


说说看 😄 好奇。

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