落地无声
最近新选情分析
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2024-10-11 13:20:35
所有的poll，其实都是clickbait，不可能有一方一直不变的，不然双方都没兴趣去看
EightDishes 发表于 2024-10-11 11:24
好像昨天的tipp pa poll，直接说费城turn out 是10%，然后trump是一分领先lv，真是笑话
今天花儿姐民调显示咖喱姐在6个摇摆州胜出，还行。
Since September 30 (last Monday), there have been almost as many Republican-aligned polls released as non-partisan polls — with Democratic-aligned polls basically non-existent.
🟣 Non-partisan-aligned polls: 33
🔴 Republican-aligned polls: 26
🔵 Democratic-aligned polls: 1
不是这样的，一个叫做"American greatness"的川党民调机构雇佣TIPP做宾州民调，TIPP是个很权威的民调公司，然后得到的结果是哈里斯+4
American greatness一看这还得了，用了一个自己的turn out model，说费城选民的投票率只有十分之一，得到结论宾州"likely voter"的民调结果是川普+1.5
当然了，X上的川粉们马上又是一阵高潮，it's over！landsliding! Trump 2024,2028,2032！
Moscow79 发表于 2024-10-11 13:29
To be clear, TIPP is standing by their likely voter screen that reduced voters in Philadelphia from n=124 to n=12
— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) October 11, 2024
It “just so happens that the likelihood to vote of the people who took the survey in that region” — the most Dem/racially diverse part of the state — was low
Got it https://t.co/b64G1lU7AT
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1844562616506552759
但是原先的那124人，约94%说他们会投票，也就他们是likely voters
到底了
HOT DEALS