落地无声
【立帖为证】我自己搭的大选预测模型刚刚出结果了，分析了近百个poll的详细数据，结合EV的实时数据，结果可信度超过90%
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2024-11-02 08:54:53
There is a massive TikTok trend going viral right now with women reacting to audio of Trump's disgusting remarks about women. They are making the case to the men in their life to vote with their interests in mind. These videos are racking up tens of millions of views. pic.twitter.com/Lj9pfF7ufC
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) October 27, 2024
https://x.com/meidastouch/status/1850600699760951571
岂止啊。隔壁楼那个18岁因为怀孕complication不能堕胎而去世的女孩生前不就是支持反堕胎的吗？
Bonier: We’ve heard from Republicans for four years now how they supposedly invested in voter registration. They say they’re winning the registration battle in places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. Well, if that were true, we’d expect to see them doing… pic.twitter.com/moZNCSAhja
— Acyn (@Acyn) October 31, 2024
https://x.com/acyn/status/1852118183198539838
刚才看Reddit, 他们说poll非常准确的selzer poll has Iowa Harris +3
Harris 47% vs trump 44%
楼主，你的模型说不定还可以。Reddit 的大选帖子的一堆人都在等这个poll, 刚刚放出来的结果，大家都不敢相信了， too good to be true
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)
不是这样的，美国的很多商界大佬一般情况下还是挺有社会责任感，像buffet这次没有出来，而只有bill gates 公开支持Harris, 我觉得还是挺失望的，他以前一直都是endorsed 民主党候选人的，至于Elon Musk 这种从南非那种长期种族歧视中环境出来的和美国这边商界领袖还是不一样的。
like mother like son
Maye Musk says her Canadian friends are going to go vote.
— Art Candee 🍿🥤 (@ArtCandee) November 2, 2024
I hope the FBI pays her a visit to find out who these people are who want to commit a crime.
She’s just as vile as her son.pic.twitter.com/ArD0qioupB
https://x.com/artcandee/status/1852739493494722761
If you ever wondered how Elon turned out so dangerously weird — meet his apartheid mommy. pic.twitter.com/lcmF8ceUey
— Gailen David (@gailendavid) November 1, 2024
https://x.com/gailendavid/status/1852304652018102540
Trump spending the last day in North Carolina -- the only battleground state he won in 2020 -- says a lot about how his campaign sees the map.
— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) November 4, 2024
https://x.com/danpfeiffer/status/1853458101372178448
Yup look at this https://t.co/QzWa494R31
— Franklin (@franklinisbored) November 4, 2024
https://x.com/franklinisbored/status/1853459334610792470
NC搞不好今年翻蓝。。。别光看着rally，local的拉票感觉共和党一点没做，看到好多民主党拜票的帖子在NC, 没啥共和党拜票的帖子，或者我被定向推送了哈哈
昨天也看到很多数据，说gop的ground work几乎不存在，外包给elon musk但是都很烂，克扣员工的消息不断
GA已经连续送上去两个民主党senators了。有人居然认为Biden赢是靠运气。
民主党在GA多年深耕，成果是有的，相信以后还会继续向左。
Harris是女性，这个identity到底会产生什么影响，真的很难估计。她可能赢不了GA，但是Biden赢GA绝对不是靠运气。
holidaycactus 发表于 2024-11-04 13:04
2位senator中的一位已经赢连任了
NEW: per @NBCNews final poll, share of voters who rate their election interest as at least 9 out of 10, by gender...
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 4, 2024
Year: Men/Women
2008: 79%/78%
2012: 79%/80%
2016: 76%/77%
2020: 84%/83%
2024: 74%/80%
If Harris wins tomorrow, this will be a big reason why.
https://x.com/redistrict/status/1853496128802607218
到底了
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