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凤凰卫视: 美国股票市场低迷,投行生意惨淡,华尔街裁员大潮又至
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2016-04-24 16:13:29
Wall Street banking revenue is in freefall, and here's why
Wall Street banks reported ugly quarters for FICC trading desks,which took a beating in a volatile market.
[url=http://www.cnbc.com/jon-marino/]Jon Marino[/url]| [url=http://twitter.com/JonMarino]@JonMarino[/url]
CNBC.com
Fixedincome, currencies and commodities trading declines hit [url=http://www.cnbc.com/wall-street/]Wall Street[/url] hard in a volatilefirst quarter.
[url=http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GS]Goldman Sachs[/url] reportedfirst-quarter earnings Tuesday morning that while crossing a low bar also saw a47 percent year-over-year drop in fixed income, currencies and commodities, orFICC, to $1.66 billion. It was part of a report that showed revenue growthtumbling 40 percent, from $10.62 billion from the year-ago period to $6.34billion in the first three months of 2016.
Withgrowing uncertainty on the horizon in the second quarter, the FICC strugglecould continue. In part thanks to more central banks embracing negativeinterest rates, S&P Global Markets Intelligence equity analyst Kenneth Leonsaid more FICC pain could continue on Wall Street in 2016.
"If there were an area to come back, it would be equities trading first," he said.
[url=http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/MS]Morgan Stanley[/url] said Monday itstrading revenue from debt, currencies and commodities saw revenue plunge morethan 50 percent to $873 million.
Equitiestrading also slid year-over-year at each bank, but not nearly as much.
MorganStanley said in its earnings report that the drop reflects "lower levelsof client activity in rates and foreign exchange and a challenging creditenvironment," as well as the divestiture of commodity businesses.
Otherbanks that reported earnings last week saw their FICC desks plagued by similarproblems. FICC desks' challenges stem from a number of issues to start 2016:their relative strong performance in the first quarter a year ago, centralbanks' maintenance of low interest rates and international instability.
[url=http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JPM]JPMorgan Chase[/url] reported a declineof 13 percent in fixed income markets and [url=http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/BAC]Bank of America[/url] said last week itsaw FICC fall 17 percent. Each saw equities trading businesses post a strongerquarter than their FICC businesses.
Bank ofAmerica CFO Paul Donofrio said he thinks the second quarter is starting off farbetter than the first, but that volatility still could remain ahead. The June23 vote in the U.K. on whether to exit the European Union could again vexmarkets.
"March felt, I think, a lot better than certainly January and February,"Donofrio saidlast week on the bank's earnings call, adding, on the Brexit, "there'sgoing to be volatility potentially around the vote and around any changes afterthe vote."
[url=http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/C]Citigroup[/url] also saw an 11percent drop in fixed income markets trading from the previous year, the bankannounced in its earnings. While Citi's FICC losses were lower than otherbanks', it saw greater losses in equities trading, an anomaly for the quarter.
2016 Q1 Summary
The only question regarding the current market is whether we call it bad, awful, or grim? In many respects it’s pretty grim:
Q1 worst since 2009. “Global IB revenue totaled $12.8bn in 1Q2016, down 36% from 1Q2015 ($20.0bn). Revenue across all products dropped but fees from ECM tumbled 55% year-on-year. M&A, Syndicated Lending and DCM revenues fell by 24%, 30% and 32% respectively, making 1Q 2016 the lowest quarter for revenue since 1Q 2009” [url=https://publishing.dealogic.com/ib/GlobalIBStrategyReviewFirstQuarter2016PRELIM.pdf]com[/url]
3 bad quarters in a row
Wave after wave of layoffs
[url=http://dealbreaker.com/2015/12/morgan-stanley-layoffs/]Morgan Stanley[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/01/brian-moynihan-there-will-be-layoffs/]Bank of America[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/03/layoffs-watch-16-credit-suisse-to-lighten-its-load-by-4-figures-worth-of-employees/]Credit Suisse[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/03/nomura-layoffs/]Nomura[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/04/layoffs-watch-16-citigroup/]Citigroup[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/03/goldman-sachs-job-cuts/]Goldman[/url], [url=http://dealbreaker.com/2016/01/layoffs-watch-16-barclays-starts-investment-banking-cuts/]Barclays[/url]
Firms have determined that the markets for trading, particularly fixed income, have shrunk and won’t recover any time soon (see MS 25% cut across all of fixed income in Dec)
Here is the boots on the ground picture of the job market:
Several large banks implemented firm hiring freezes in Q3 of 2015:
No replacement hires
No new hires to tackle new regulatory projects
No hires for new business initiatives
Now 1-2 quarters after the layoffs, we’re seeing things ease:
Contract hires in critical areas
Replacement hires are being made
Strategic roles are being opened
Hedge Funds / Prop Firms have had a tough couple of years, but there are bright spots
Some hedge funds are hiring
The bar is high – these firms are being very selective
确定无疑的是现在华尔街工作市场是很糟糕的;
前10年,20年,常春藤本科毕业去大投行 IBD 赚大钱这条金饭碗之路虽然还未消失,但已经极度萎缩了;
FICC 现在处于非常惨淡的状态,何时能复苏没法预测;
Equity Trading 是少数没那么糟糕的部门之一,如文中所说,复苏的话可能也是从 Equity Trading 开始;
Buy Side 也强不到哪去。
到底了
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