这个 poll 还比较靠谱，样本比较大时间跨度长。

The new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggested Harris has the electoral votes needed to win the White House next month. She has the lead over Trump in the swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to the poll. President Biden carried those swing states, as well as Nevada, in 2020 to win the election.

The poll found Harris has a 4-point lead in Georgia with 51 percent of support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 47 percent. Among registered voters, she has a 6-point lead.

The poll also found that Harris also has the lead across the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has a 3-point lead in Wisconsin with 50 percent of support compared to Trump’s 47 percent of support among likely voters. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, she has a 2-point lead over the former president.

Winning the Blue Wall could be Harris’s best path to victory. In 2020, Biden narrowly carried the three Blue Wall states as well as the swing states of Nevada and Georgia to secure his bid for the White House.

Trump has the edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while the two candidates are tied in Nevada with 48 percent of support each, according to the poll. In Arizona, Trump has a 3-point lead among likely voters with 49 percent of support compared to Harris‘s 46 percent.

Trump also has the lead in the battleground state of North Carolina, where he narrowly defeated Biden in 2020. He has 50 percent of support among likely voters in the state while Harris has 47 percent.

Overall, the poll found that the race was deadlocked across the seven swing states surveyed. The poll found 47 percent of registered voters across the seven swing states said they would definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent said the same of Trump. Among likely voters, Harris had a 1-point lead with 49 percent of support compared to Trump’s 48 percent of support.

The poll comes as the two candidates continue to court voters in the key swing states as Election Day creeps closer. Many other national and swing state polls show that the race is too close to call with just two weeks to go.