很有可能大选结果会非常让人震惊

IOWA poll表明65: senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

65岁以上选民全美占比30%=37086000票， 其中女性比例应该高于男性而且turnout也高

In the U.S., women generally outnumber men among voters aged 65 and older. This difference is largely due to women’s longer life expectancy. For context:

• Among Americans 65 and older, women make up around 55-60% of the population.
• Voting data often reflects this trend, with women participating at higher rates than men in this age group.
• In terms of exact voter turnout, recent estimates suggest that women in this age group may cast 56-58% of the votes, while men account for about 42-44%.

综合下来，这个年龄段票数分布会是60% vs 40% in favor of Kamala。

如果这些选民全部投票，Kamala多拿七百四十万票，在这65岁以上 voter里。

所以，结论是女性可能决定本次选举结果。